Tensions mount between China and the Philippines

Could the Philippines be the next big flashpoint in the South China Sea? On April 13th a Chinese coastguard vessel blocked a maritime-research vessel and its escort, both belonging to the Philippines. The incident was just 35 nautical miles from the coast of the Philippines and barely inside China’s notorious “nine-dash line”, which it uses to claim territory over its waters. Reports have also emerged of Chinese coastguard vessels firing water cannons at supply boats trying to reach troops on the Sierra Madre, a rusty warship grounded on purpose by the Philippines within its exclusive economic zone. Chinese boats are also swarming around islands occupied by the Philippines and conducting patrols within its waters.

China has long had a contentious relationship with countries in the South China Sea. The recent spate of incidents has had more publicity partly because the government of the Philippines now highlights China’s actions as part of a “transparency initiative”. This policy shift has been driven by President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos who, after being elected in 2022, returned the country to its usual pro-Western stance. By contrast, Rodrigo Duterte, the previous president, appeased China, generally staying silent about its growing aggression in the South China Sea. “He didn’t even want us to patrol our exclusive economic zone, that’s how far he went,” says Rommel Ong, a retired rear admiral.