The epic bust-up between China and India could be ending

Ask an Indian diplomat about relations with China and they will repeat a well-rehearsed mantra: there can be no return to normality until peace is restored on their disputed Himalayan border. That has been the official line for most of the time since 2020, when a deadly clash occurred there between Indian and Chinese troops. On the face of it, India’s stance is a rejection of China’s suggestion that the two countries should set aside the dispute, which has pushed India closer to America, and focus on areas of mutual interest.

Relations are indeed still far from their pre-2020 normality. And they are unlikely to return to it soon. Even so, there has been a quiet yet notable shift in recent months towards a new phase of relations defined by border stability and closer commercial ties. The shift reflects India’s urgent need for Chinese technology, investment and expertise to meet its immediate industrial needs. It is also based on China’s mounting concern about its own economy and escalating trade barriers worldwide.