Europe | Charlemagne

What happens if Ukraine loses?

Russian victory would be debilitating for the West, and especially for Europe

A bear's paw claws across a map of Europe.
Illustration: Peter Schrank

To ask “what if Ukraine loses?” was once a tactic favoured by those looking to berate its Western allies into sending more money and weapons. Increasingly the question feels less like a thought experiment and more like the first stage of contingency planning. After a gruelling few months on the battlefield, gone are last year’s hopes of a Ukrainian counter-offensive that would push Russia back to its borders and humble Vladimir Putin. These days it is fear that dominates: that an existing stalemate might crumble in favour of the invader, or of Donald Trump coming back to power in America and delivering victory to Russia on a silver platter. Although a vanquished Ukraine has become a less far-fetched prospect, it is no less frightening. Sobering as the return of war on the continent has been, a successful invasion reaping geopolitical rewards for Mr Putin would be much worse.

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This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the headline “If Ukraine loses”

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From the April 13th 2024 edition

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