How Donald Trump damaged America’s interests in Asia

Donald trump entered the White House in 2017 with a long hit list. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade deal which he called “a rape of our country”, was near the top. Just three days into his presidency, Mr Trump moved to kill it—and succeeded only in denying America its benefits. While America ditched the pact, others defied expectations by staying wedded to it and the principles of free trade and multilateral rule-making it represented. Five years ago this week, ministers from the 11 remaining countries met in Chile to sign the renamed Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for TransPacific Partnership (CPTPP).

How has it fared? Without America—whose Democratic president, Joe Biden, dares not offend the protectionists in his party by undoing Mr Trump’s error—the economic impact has been less than was once envisaged. Certain pairs within the group, especially those such as Vietnam and Canada that did not have free-trade agreements, have seen big rises in trade. In some industries import values within the bloc rose by as much as 22.9% and export values by as much as 11.6% for every percentage-point drop in tariffs, reckons the Asia Competitiveness Institute, a research centre in Singapore. But external shocks—the pandemic, the US-China trade war, the actual war in Ukraine—have muddied the picture and complicated data analysis.