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Who is Kamala Harris?

Checks and Balance - Who is Kamala Harris? | Podcasts | The Economist

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Veep learning curve: Kamala Harris

Vice President Kamala Harris smiles as she is introduced to the stage at an event in Indianapolis, USA.

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Within hours of Joe Biden announcing he would not run again, Kamala Harris emerged as the Democrat’s presumptive nominee. But despite decades in the public eye, Vice President Harris is still a mystery. What sort of presidential candidate will she be in 2024? And can she win?

Within hours of <a href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/07/22/kamala-harris-lacks-charisma-and-time">Joe Biden announcing</a> he would not run again, Kamala Harris emerged as the Democrat’s presumptive nominee. But despite decades in the public eye, Vice President Harris is <a href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/07/25/which-kamala-harris-is-now-at-the-top-of-the-democratic-ticket">still a mystery</a>. What sort of presidential candidate will she be in 2024? And <a href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/07/22/can-kamala-harris-beat-donald-trump-heres-what-the-polls-say">can she win</a>?

John Prideaux hosts with Charlotte Howard and Idrees Kahloon. They’re joined by The Economist’s visiting senior editor Steve Coll and political data scientist Owen Winter.

John Prideaux hosts with Charlotte Howard and Idrees Kahloon. They’re joined by The Economist’s visiting senior editor Steve Coll and political data scientist Owen Winter.

Checks and Balance

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John Prideaux [00:00:10] In 1994. Kamala Harris was a young prosecutor in California. She was also in a new relationship. She was dating Willie Brown, the California State Assembly speaker. Brown was 30 years her senior and was glamorous and wealthy, driving a Ferrari and always wearing a crisp suit. That year, Brown and Harris visited Boston while they were out on the East Coast. A New York property developer wanted to talk to Brown about a Los Angeles hotel project. According to Kamala Harris biographer Dan Morain, the billionaire developer sent his private jet for Brown, Harris and their friends. Inside it was gilded. The hotel deal never happened. And Harris’s relationship with Brown fizzled the following year. But now, three decades on, she’s facing that property developer in a race for the presidency. With 101 days to go until the 2024 election, I’m John Prideaux, and this is Checks and Balance from The Economist. Each week we take one big theme shaping American politics and explore it in depth. Today. Who is presumptive nominee Harris and what will voters make of her? Within 36 hours of President Biden dropping out. Kamala Harris at the Democratic nomination tied up. Her candidacy has been met with jubilation at rallies and consternation from some Republicans. Now she’s out of Joe Biden’s shadow, what does the vice president actually believe? And how persuasive will voters find it? With me to talk about the vice president are Idrees Kahloon in Washington, D.C. and Charlotte Howard in New York. Guys, I thought last week was kind of a busy one with the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and then the RNC and Trump’s pick of J.D. Vance as his running mate. But this week has been equally busy, maybe more so. Joe Biden stood aside from the presidential campaign for about ten minutes. It looked like that might be a contest to replace him. And then that was over pretty quickly. And now we have Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket. So we have a lot to talk about this week. Before we do that, how are you both doing? You’ve recovered from the excitement of Milwaukee. The party never stopped. It just went straight into Biden leaving and Kamala mania. And I think maybe I can sleep this weekend, so I’m looking forward to that. How about you, Charlotte?

John Prideaux [00:00:10] In 1994. Kamala Harris was a young prosecutor in California. She was also in a new relationship. She was dating Willie Brown, the California State Assembly speaker. Brown was 30 years her senior and was glamorous and wealthy, driving a Ferrari and always wearing a crisp suit. That year, Brown and Harris visited Boston while they were out on the East Coast. A New York property developer wanted to talk to Brown about a Los Angeles hotel project. According to Kamala Harris biographer Dan Morain, the billionaire developer sent his private jet for Brown, Harris and their friends. Inside it was gilded. The hotel deal never happened. And Harris’s relationship with Brown fizzled the following year. But now, three decades on, she’s facing that property developer in a race for the presidency. With 101 days to go until the 2024 election, I’m John Prideaux, and this is Checks and Balance from The Economist. Each week we take one big theme shaping American politics and explore it in depth. Today. Who is presumptive nominee Harris and what will voters make of her? Within 36 hours of President Biden dropping out. Kamala Harris at the Democratic nomination tied up. Her candidacy has been met with jubilation at rallies and consternation from some Republicans. Now she’s out of Joe Biden’s shadow, what does the vice president actually believe? And how persuasive will voters find it? With me to talk about the vice president are Idrees Kahloon in Washington, D.C. and Charlotte Howard in New York. Guys, I thought last week was kind of a busy one with the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and then the RNC and Trump’s pick of J.D. Vance as his running mate. But this week has been equally busy, maybe more so. Joe Biden stood aside from the presidential campaign for about ten minutes. It looked like that might be a contest to replace him. And then that was over pretty quickly. And now we have Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket. So we have a lot to talk about this week. Before we do that, how are you both doing? You’ve recovered from the excitement of Milwaukee. The party never stopped. It just went straight into Biden leaving and Kamala mania. And I think maybe I can sleep this weekend, so I’m looking forward to that. How about you, Charlotte?

Charlotte Howard [00:02:59] I am well, yes. It was a really busy week. We were all on a WhatsApp chain on Sunday when Biden news came down. And you’re right, John. It was less than half an hour between when Biden made his announcement that he would step down and when he made his endorsement. And the news started flowing really quickly after that.

Charlotte Howard [00:02:59] I am well, yes. It was a really busy week. We were all on a WhatsApp chain on Sunday when Biden news came down. And you’re right, John. It was less than half an hour between when Biden made his announcement that he would step down and when he made his endorsement. And the news started flowing really quickly after that.

John Prideaux [00:03:18] And we’ve got so much to talk about this week. Let’s get right into it. One of our editors, Steve Coll, has been following Kamala Harris’s career for years. Charlotte, you spoke to him earlier this week.

John Prideaux [00:03:18] And we’ve got so much to talk about this week. Let’s get right into it. One of our editors, Steve Coll, has been following Kamala Harris’s career for years. Charlotte, you spoke to him earlier this week.

Charlotte Howard [00:03:28] Yeah, I spoke with Steve about Kamala Harris because she’s an interesting figure in that she is at once well known and not known at all. So I asked him about how her career started.

Charlotte Howard [00:03:28] Yeah, I spoke with Steve about Kamala Harris because she’s an interesting figure in that she is at once well known and not known at all. So I asked him about how her career started.

Steve Coll [00:03:42] She was the daughter of immigrants, her mother was an under chronologies from India and her father was a Jamaican economist. They met at Berkeley as young civil rights activists. And that’s the origin story. That is very intriguing. But as far as her political persona goes, it’s not something she’s campaigned on except in passing. Her parents separated fairly early in her life, and it was her mother who became a big influence, and with her support, she went to law school. Kamala Harris did and became a prosecutor in Oakland. Initially, that’s where she began in public life, and that is still a central part of her instinct about politics to talk about the role of the public attorney on the government side, whether as attorney general, where your responsibilities are quite broad, or whether as a county prosecutor, where you’re just after the bad guys and trying to put them in jail.

Steve Coll [00:03:42] She was the daughter of immigrants, her mother was an under chronologies from India and her father was a Jamaican economist. They met at Berkeley as young civil rights activists. And that’s the origin story. That is very intriguing. But as far as her political persona goes, it’s not something she’s campaigned on except in passing. Her parents separated fairly early in her life, and it was her mother who became a big influence, and with her support, she went to law school. Kamala Harris did and became a prosecutor in Oakland. Initially, that’s where she began in public life, and that is still a central part of her instinct about politics to talk about the role of the public attorney on the government side, whether as attorney general, where your responsibilities are quite broad, or whether as a county prosecutor, where you’re just after the bad guys and trying to put them in jail.

Charlotte Howard [00:04:46] And so then how did her identity evolve as she was in the Senate? Only briefly. And then in her run for president.

Charlotte Howard [00:04:46] And so then how did her identity evolve as she was in the Senate? Only briefly. And then in her run for president.

Steve Coll [00:04:55] In the Senate, she became known as someone who was very effective at hearings, which is one of the big set piece political opportunities of Senate life. She managed to pull off the difficult feat of in a highly visible set of hearings, one involving Brett Kavanaugh, the Supreme Court justice, and also some appearances by Jeff Sessions, another appearance by William Barr. In all three of those instances, she managed to take some very substantive questioning and have it go viral because she managed to unsettle these very experienced older men who were Republican witnesses, and people had different reactions to it depending on their political leanings. But as hearing interrogation, it was really very good.

Steve Coll [00:04:55] In the Senate, she became known as someone who was very effective at hearings, which is one of the big set piece political opportunities of Senate life. She managed to pull off the difficult feat of in a highly visible set of hearings, one involving Brett Kavanaugh, the Supreme Court justice, and also some appearances by Jeff Sessions, another appearance by William Barr. In all three of those instances, she managed to take some very substantive questioning and have it go viral because she managed to unsettle these very experienced older men who were Republican witnesses, and people had different reactions to it depending on their political leanings. But as hearing interrogation, it was really very good.

Charlotte Howard [00:05:50] One of the things that’s a bit of a puzzle about her is the question of her authenticity. And I’m curious whether you think this whole line of critique is valid against her. But Americans seem to be particularly intolerant of people who change their points of view. Americans are forgiving of people who seem authentic. So Trump may be rambling and incoherent, but that’s just who he is, right? And you have a sense among particularly those who are his true fans, that he is authentic and therefore he can be trusted. And one of the challenges with Kamala Harris is that she’s easy to cast as someone who doesn’t really know what she stands for, because her positions have switched over time. You saw her veer to the left in 2019 when she was trying to be president. So do you think that is a caricature or a fair assessment? Is there a real Kamala Harris and if so, who is she?

Charlotte Howard [00:05:50] One of the things that’s a bit of a puzzle about her is the question of her authenticity. And I’m curious whether you think this whole line of critique is valid against her. But Americans seem to be particularly intolerant of people who change their points of view. Americans are forgiving of people who seem authentic. So Trump may be rambling and incoherent, but that’s just who he is, right? And you have a sense among particularly those who are his true fans, that he is authentic and therefore he can be trusted. And one of the challenges with Kamala Harris is that she’s easy to cast as someone who doesn’t really know what she stands for, because her positions have switched over time. You saw her veer to the left in 2019 when she was trying to be president. So do you think that is a caricature or a fair assessment? Is there a real Kamala Harris and if so, who is she?

Steve Coll [00:06:46] I think you’re right to say that she has changed positions, but I think virtually every elected politician with her years of experience has changed positions. The problem is that she can’t dilute that vulnerability with call it authenticity, but maybe more broadly, a clear sense of purpose in public life. This is what’s missing in her national profile, and I think this is her biggest vulnerability down the stretch against Donald Trump. Think of politicians who are very gifted about translating their core convictions in multiple settings to multiple audiences, and defining themselves by these convictions. Ronald Reagan with his hostility towards communism. Bill Clinton had a sense of globalisation before a lot of people. Barack Obama saw himself as a bridge between the civil rights era, and he hoped, a more optimistic post-civil rights era with Kamala Harris. I don’t know what core convictions she calls upon when the question is, what really matters to you? It’s possible, now that she has this enormous opportunity, that she will find that story to tell about the country and where the country is going. But it’s the absence of that that exposes her to the flip flopping.

Steve Coll [00:06:46] I think you’re right to say that she has changed positions, but I think virtually every elected politician with her years of experience has changed positions. The problem is that she can’t dilute that vulnerability with call it authenticity, but maybe more broadly, a clear sense of purpose in public life. This is what’s missing in her national profile, and I think this is her biggest vulnerability down the stretch against Donald Trump. Think of politicians who are very gifted about translating their core convictions in multiple settings to multiple audiences, and defining themselves by these convictions. Ronald Reagan with his hostility towards communism. Bill Clinton had a sense of globalisation before a lot of people. Barack Obama saw himself as a bridge between the civil rights era, and he hoped, a more optimistic post-civil rights era with Kamala Harris. I don’t know what core convictions she calls upon when the question is, what really matters to you? It’s possible, now that she has this enormous opportunity, that she will find that story to tell about the country and where the country is going. But it’s the absence of that that exposes her to the flip flopping.

Charlotte Howard [00:08:10] So I completely agree with that. I heard her speech this week and I think, like many people, was impressed with the vigour and charm candidly with which she delivered it. I thought she did a fantastic job, and the task of speaking more extemporaneously, as she will have to, as she campaigns, as she debates part of the challenge. And my next question for you is about how, in articulating that vision, she is able to be proud of certain accomplishments that the Biden-Harris administration has made over the past three years, and the extent to which she is able to effectively distance herself from the president’s record. How do you think about that challenge?

Charlotte Howard [00:08:10] So I completely agree with that. I heard her speech this week and I think, like many people, was impressed with the vigour and charm candidly with which she delivered it. I thought she did a fantastic job, and the task of speaking more extemporaneously, as she will have to, as she campaigns, as she debates part of the challenge. And my next question for you is about how, in articulating that vision, she is able to be proud of certain accomplishments that the Biden-Harris administration has made over the past three years, and the extent to which she is able to effectively distance herself from the president’s record. How do you think about that challenge?

Steve Coll [00:08:58] That’s a more familiar challenge of incumbency and vice presidents, and it’s much harder to deliver the talking points, be prepared for the attacks, to pivot them, to send them back at your opponent. If you don’t have that core set of convictions that you can rely on when you want to change the question. But I had to cover the debate she had with Mike pence, where she did quite well. I mean, pence is a decades experienced radio personality, and she beat him, according to the polling. And that was certainly my instinct. She at least you would say she held her own. And my interpretation of her strengths there and in these hearings is that she prepares she is a litigator who, like a good litigator, never asks a question to which she doesn’t know the answer already. So I think she can handle some of this incumbency problem by preparing file card answers that you can flip into your head when you find yourself challenged on these matters. But to me, the missing piece is what we were talking about before. Like the big picture of why she’s in public life, why the American people can trust her judgement. Because, you know, in the end, you trusted the three presidents that I mentioned before because you knew that they had their feet under them, around the big questions that they were going to have to make decisions about.

Steve Coll [00:08:58] That’s a more familiar challenge of incumbency and vice presidents, and it’s much harder to deliver the talking points, be prepared for the attacks, to pivot them, to send them back at your opponent. If you don’t have that core set of convictions that you can rely on when you want to change the question. But I had to cover the debate she had with Mike pence, where she did quite well. I mean, pence is a decades experienced radio personality, and she beat him, according to the polling. And that was certainly my instinct. She at least you would say she held her own. And my interpretation of her strengths there and in these hearings is that she prepares she is a litigator who, like a good litigator, never asks a question to which she doesn’t know the answer already. So I think she can handle some of this incumbency problem by preparing file card answers that you can flip into your head when you find yourself challenged on these matters. But to me, the missing piece is what we were talking about before. Like the big picture of why she’s in public life, why the American people can trust her judgement. Because, you know, in the end, you trusted the three presidents that I mentioned before because you knew that they had their feet under them, around the big questions that they were going to have to make decisions about.

John Prideaux [00:10:34] Charlotte. The way I think of Harris’s record in public life, there are three versions of her. There’s the tough on crime prosecutor from the California days. There’s the arch progressive of the 2019 2020 Democratic primary. And then there’s her record as the vice president, where she in some ways owns the accomplishments of this administration, some of which have been pretty good, some of which are less popular. High prices, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the southern border. Which of those three do you think will get most of in this campaign?

John Prideaux [00:10:34] Charlotte. The way I think of Harris’s record in public life, there are three versions of her. There’s the tough on crime prosecutor from the California days. There’s the arch progressive of the 2019 2020 Democratic primary. And then there’s her record as the vice president, where she in some ways owns the accomplishments of this administration, some of which have been pretty good, some of which are less popular. High prices, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the southern border. Which of those three do you think will get most of in this campaign?

Charlotte Howard [00:11:11] If her campaign is smart, you will probably get very little of version two. I mean, in 2019, she was not a successful candidate. You saw in her first speech on Tuesday the continued references to her time as a prosecutor. You know, she wants to lean into that law and order background, which I think is strategically wise because Trump wants to make this an election in part about chaos and a lack of safety. And so she’s wise strategically to lean into that. And I think it is more of an authentic part of her past. And then as vice president, you know, it’s interesting. I think it is correct. There are lots of people who’ve pointed out that she was handed an almost impossible job in dealing with the root causes of the border crisis as vice president, and that’s just a very, very hard thing to do. But I do think that she nonetheless deserves criticism. Even if she couldn’t solve the problem, she could have been much more forceful in at least communicating what the Biden administration was trying to do on the border and representing some kind of clear plan, as opposed to kind of early on deciding it was toxic and then not leading into it. On the question of preparation, she faced very easy questions at some points in her time as a vice president, most famously with this disastrous Lester Holt interview in which he asked her about visiting the border and whether she would, and her reply was completely incoherent and immediately made into a meme. So I think the best version of her campaign would be to lean into her record in California, and then also continue to display more sophisticated skills as a politician, which I do think have evolved since that whole interview. I mean, she has been for the past months out and about trying to very gracefully defend the president. And I think that in this election, Harris does have to do something new. She has to be a different type of politician than she was to win a California race, a different type of politician than she was in 2019. So she could do that. But there’s no evidence yet to say that she will.

Charlotte Howard [00:11:11] If her campaign is smart, you will probably get very little of version two. I mean, in 2019, she was not a successful candidate. You saw in her first speech on Tuesday the continued references to her time as a prosecutor. You know, she wants to lean into that law and order background, which I think is strategically wise because Trump wants to make this an election in part about chaos and a lack of safety. And so she’s wise strategically to lean into that. And I think it is more of an authentic part of her past. And then as vice president, you know, it’s interesting. I think it is correct. There are lots of people who’ve pointed out that she was handed an almost impossible job in dealing with the root causes of the border crisis as vice president, and that’s just a very, very hard thing to do. But I do think that she nonetheless deserves criticism. Even if she couldn’t solve the problem, she could have been much more forceful in at least communicating what the Biden administration was trying to do on the border and representing some kind of clear plan, as opposed to kind of early on deciding it was toxic and then not leading into it. On the question of preparation, she faced very easy questions at some points in her time as a vice president, most famously with this disastrous Lester Holt interview in which he asked her about visiting the border and whether she would, and her reply was completely incoherent and immediately made into a meme. So I think the best version of her campaign would be to lean into her record in California, and then also continue to display more sophisticated skills as a politician, which I do think have evolved since that whole interview. I mean, she has been for the past months out and about trying to very gracefully defend the president. And I think that in this election, Harris does have to do something new. She has to be a different type of politician than she was to win a California race, a different type of politician than she was in 2019. So she could do that. But there’s no evidence yet to say that she will.

John Prideaux [00:13:26] Earlier in the year, I was in the camp of people who thought that Kamala Harris was a weaker candidate than Joe Biden. That was changed by two things. First, his debate performance, which made her look a lot better by comparison. And then I tuned in to watch her speech in Wisconsin this week in Milwaukee. And I was pretty impressed by that. And our colleague Daniel Knowles, who was there for The Economist, talked to some people who seemed pretty moved by it to.

John Prideaux [00:13:26] Earlier in the year, I was in the camp of people who thought that Kamala Harris was a weaker candidate than Joe Biden. That was changed by two things. First, his debate performance, which made her look a lot better by comparison. And then I tuned in to watch her speech in Wisconsin this week in Milwaukee. And I was pretty impressed by that. And our colleague Daniel Knowles, who was there for The Economist, talked to some people who seemed pretty moved by it to.

Vox pop 1 [00:13:53] Having a female candidate to run on abortion is really exciting, and something that I can actually talk to people about and talk to our friends about and get other people to be excited to go for.

Vox pop 1 [00:13:53] Having a female candidate to run on abortion is really exciting, and something that I can actually talk to people about and talk to our friends about and get other people to be excited to go for.

Vox pop 2 [00:14:03] I think it’s great. I’m happy that Biden stepped aside to let a new generation take the stage.

Vox pop 2 [00:14:03] I think it’s great. I’m happy that Biden stepped aside to let a new generation take the stage.

Vox pop 3 [00:14:09] She was fantastic. She speaks with ease and with heart.

Vox pop 3 [00:14:09] She was fantastic. She speaks with ease and with heart.

Daniel Knowles [00:14:13] And how are you feeling about the election?

Daniel Knowles [00:14:13] And how are you feeling about the election?

Vox pop 3 [00:14:15] I have hope, I have hope, and I didn’t have hope before.

Vox pop 3 [00:14:15] I have hope, I have hope, and I didn’t have hope before.

John Prideaux [00:14:20] So what did you make of that speech in Milwaukee this week? Were you as impressed as I was?

John Prideaux [00:14:20] So what did you make of that speech in Milwaukee this week? Were you as impressed as I was?

Idrees Kahloon [00:14:24] Yeah. I thought that she delivered a speech that had a lot of energy. She had a lot of vigour, enthusiasm. And that’s a very, very good start for her campaign. But I think there’s a feeling of euphoria among Democrats right now, basically at the idea that they won’t have Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. So there’s a lot of goodwill towards vice president now. And then I think the reality will dawn among Democrats about what exactly she is, what exactly she stands for. And it’s very, very hard to know that in the speech, she didn’t really outline what her candidacy was supposed to be about. And I think that there is obviously a few days of grace, but I don’t know what her economic policy is going to be. I don’t know what her foreign policy is going to be. So I think she has her work cut out for her in a lot of ways. And Charlotte, we’ve been talking amongst ourselves for a while about doing a podcast episode focussed on Harris and with a view to that. You went to see her in May before she was the candidate at the top of the ticket. What did you make of her political skills then, when you saw her work, a big crowd?

Idrees Kahloon [00:14:24] Yeah. I thought that she delivered a speech that had a lot of energy. She had a lot of vigour, enthusiasm. And that’s a very, very good start for her campaign. But I think there’s a feeling of euphoria among Democrats right now, basically at the idea that they won’t have Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. So there’s a lot of goodwill towards vice president now. And then I think the reality will dawn among Democrats about what exactly she is, what exactly she stands for. And it’s very, very hard to know that in the speech, she didn’t really outline what her candidacy was supposed to be about. And I think that there is obviously a few days of grace, but I don’t know what her economic policy is going to be. I don’t know what her foreign policy is going to be. So I think she has her work cut out for her in a lot of ways. And Charlotte, we’ve been talking amongst ourselves for a while about doing a podcast episode focussed on Harris and with a view to that. You went to see her in May before she was the candidate at the top of the ticket. What did you make of her political skills then, when you saw her work, a big crowd?

Charlotte Howard [00:15:29] I thought she was decent in May. I mean, if you see how. The Biden campaign was using her. In the past year or so, there had been this pivot where she had really morphed from trying to focus on the border into just being a general surrogate. She did a college campus tour talking about reproductive rights. She was on a tour this spring talking about economic opportunity, not exclusively to black voters, but often trying to veer the messaging to explain what the Biden administration had done for the black community. In the event that I visited, she was speaking with an actress in a kind of fireside chat format, the formats that the administration had developed as her kind of sweet spot, where these friendly, casual conversations. So there were these quite narrow and controlled formats in which she was able to shine. And those are very, very different from the format that she might have to now prove her mettle going forward in a general campaign.

Charlotte Howard [00:15:29] I thought she was decent in May. I mean, if you see how. The Biden campaign was using her. In the past year or so, there had been this pivot where she had really morphed from trying to focus on the border into just being a general surrogate. She did a college campus tour talking about reproductive rights. She was on a tour this spring talking about economic opportunity, not exclusively to black voters, but often trying to veer the messaging to explain what the Biden administration had done for the black community. In the event that I visited, she was speaking with an actress in a kind of fireside chat format, the formats that the administration had developed as her kind of sweet spot, where these friendly, casual conversations. So there were these quite narrow and controlled formats in which she was able to shine. And those are very, very different from the format that she might have to now prove her mettle going forward in a general campaign.

John Prideaux [00:16:38] Idrees, what do you make of the Democratic Party’s decision not to have a mini primary before the DNC in August? On the one hand, that could have been a divisive contest, which could have weakened the party at a crucial moment. On the other hand, with a more open contest, a Democrats might have discovered a really strong candidate, or b even if Harris won, I think she had come out strengthened. So do you think that was the right calculus?

John Prideaux [00:16:38] Idrees, what do you make of the Democratic Party’s decision not to have a mini primary before the DNC in August? On the one hand, that could have been a divisive contest, which could have weakened the party at a crucial moment. On the other hand, with a more open contest, a Democrats might have discovered a really strong candidate, or b even if Harris won, I think she had come out strengthened. So do you think that was the right calculus?

Idrees Kahloon [00:17:05] I don’t think that was the right calculation, but I think it was the only one available to Democrats because Biden left his decision to leave so late. If he had taken this decision in November 2022, for example, Democrats could have had a real contest. And I think a contest is important. There are people who look really good on paper who totally flounder in the national spotlight, and Kamala Harris was one of them. She did not run a very good campaign in 2019, and I think we’re going to talk about that a bit later. But even look at the Republicans, Ron DeSantis ran a pretty bad campaign, which floundered. Nikki Haley ran a surprisingly good one. There is something about the intensity of a national race which I think is salutary to participate in. Democrats are where they are, and I think they are feeling very happy right now that they’re not going to have Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. Certainly, the congressional Democrats I’ve talked to feel like they actually have a chance of winning the House now. So I think that the mood in the party is very good, but I don’t think anyone thinks that this was the ideal way of going about this.

Idrees Kahloon [00:17:05] I don’t think that was the right calculation, but I think it was the only one available to Democrats because Biden left his decision to leave so late. If he had taken this decision in November 2022, for example, Democrats could have had a real contest. And I think a contest is important. There are people who look really good on paper who totally flounder in the national spotlight, and Kamala Harris was one of them. She did not run a very good campaign in 2019, and I think we’re going to talk about that a bit later. But even look at the Republicans, Ron DeSantis ran a pretty bad campaign, which floundered. Nikki Haley ran a surprisingly good one. There is something about the intensity of a national race which I think is salutary to participate in. Democrats are where they are, and I think they are feeling very happy right now that they’re not going to have Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. Certainly, the congressional Democrats I’ve talked to feel like they actually have a chance of winning the House now. So I think that the mood in the party is very good, but I don’t think anyone thinks that this was the ideal way of going about this.

Charlotte Howard [00:18:05] When I think about the decision for everyone to rush behind Harris, because I would have much preferred an open process, it strikes me as equal parts pragmatism, selfishness and desperation. You know, practical because she had both Biden’s campaign staff and his warchest of nearly $100 million before she started fundraising. Selfish because Biden decided this lead and also selfishness, I think on the part of other possible candidates who want to hold their fire for 2028 and not be bogged down in this race against Trump, and then just the general desperation of the party. You heard on Tuesday, Kamala Harris, talk about how we had 105 days to go until the election.

Charlotte Howard [00:18:05] When I think about the decision for everyone to rush behind Harris, because I would have much preferred an open process, it strikes me as equal parts pragmatism, selfishness and desperation. You know, practical because she had both Biden’s campaign staff and his warchest of nearly $100 million before she started fundraising. Selfish because Biden decided this lead and also selfishness, I think on the part of other possible candidates who want to hold their fire for 2028 and not be bogged down in this race against Trump, and then just the general desperation of the party. You heard on Tuesday, Kamala Harris, talk about how we had 105 days to go until the election.

John Prideaux [00:18:45] It was like the introduction of checks and balances.

John Prideaux [00:18:45] It was like the introduction of checks and balances.

Charlotte Howard [00:18:47] Exactly. Yeah. It was like the introduction to checks. You know, by the time this podcast airs, we’ll have 101 days, as we said. And each of those days really counts. And even with the Democratic Party’s energy, it is tinged somewhat, by the way, that this all has gone down.

Charlotte Howard [00:18:47] Exactly. Yeah. It was like the introduction to checks. You know, by the time this podcast airs, we’ll have 101 days, as we said. And each of those days really counts. And even with the Democratic Party’s energy, it is tinged somewhat, by the way, that this all has gone down.

John Prideaux [00:19:05] Okay. Well, we’ll go back to the first time Harris ran for president and discuss what we might learn from that and how she might do it differently this time around. But before we get there, Charlotte injuries. What have you particularly enjoyed from The Economist’s recent coverage?

John Prideaux [00:19:05] Okay. Well, we’ll go back to the first time Harris ran for president and discuss what we might learn from that and how she might do it differently this time around. But before we get there, Charlotte injuries. What have you particularly enjoyed from The Economist’s recent coverage?

Idrees Kahloon [00:19:18] I am obligated, but also delighted to recommend Alice Forward’s long, deep dive into Taylor Swift’s business empire and which Taylor she is when she pursues her record deals, which is, I think, a little bit more Machiavellian than her public persona might suggest.

Idrees Kahloon [00:19:18] I am obligated, but also delighted to recommend Alice Forward’s long, deep dive into Taylor Swift’s business empire and which Taylor she is when she pursues her record deals, which is, I think, a little bit more Machiavellian than her public persona might suggest.

Charlotte Howard [00:19:35] I will challenge our listeners to look at our cover and see if they get the reference. There was a very ridiculous email chain in which middle aged people squared off against Gen Zers internally to understand whether the cover image would land with our readers. So take a look. Read the cover letter and let me know if you get the image.

Charlotte Howard [00:19:35] I will challenge our listeners to look at our cover and see if they get the reference. There was a very ridiculous email chain in which middle aged people squared off against Gen Zers internally to understand whether the cover image would land with our readers. So take a look. Read the cover letter and let me know if you get the image.

John Prideaux [00:20:00] Our summer issue, which contains that Taylor Swift piece which I also heartily endorse, has a great piece written by Steve Cole and Rebecca Jackson about the Proud Boys, so I’d recommend that strongly as well. And in this week’s US pages, there’s a really delightful piece about the joys of home distilling alcohol. That pursuit can be a little risky and is currently illegal, but it’s a great piece.

John Prideaux [00:20:00] Our summer issue, which contains that Taylor Swift piece which I also heartily endorse, has a great piece written by Steve Cole and Rebecca Jackson about the Proud Boys, so I’d recommend that strongly as well. And in this week’s US pages, there’s a really delightful piece about the joys of home distilling alcohol. That pursuit can be a little risky and is currently illegal, but it’s a great piece.

Kamala Harris (archive footage) [00:20:34] I was. Oh my God. Oh my goodness. Thank you, thank you. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

Kamala Harris (archive footage) [00:20:34] I was. Oh my God. Oh my goodness. Thank you, thank you. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

John Prideaux [00:20:57] In January of 2019, Kamala Harris had her first rally for president of the United States.

John Prideaux [00:20:57] In January of 2019, Kamala Harris had her first rally for president of the United States.

Kamala Harris (archive footage) [00:21:04] It was just a couple of blocks from this very spot nearly 30 years ago as a young district attorney. I walked into the courtroom for the first time and said the five words that would guide my life’s work. Kamala Harris for the people.

Kamala Harris (archive footage) [00:21:04] It was just a couple of blocks from this very spot nearly 30 years ago as a young district attorney. I walked into the courtroom for the first time and said the five words that would guide my life’s work. Kamala Harris for the people.

John Prideaux [00:21:27] She spoke to about 20,000 people that day in front of the city hall of her hometown, Oakland, California.

John Prideaux [00:21:27] She spoke to about 20,000 people that day in front of the city hall of her hometown, Oakland, California.

Kamala Harris (archive footage) [00:21:33] Now, I knew our criminal justice system was deeply flawed, but I also knew the profound impact law enforcement has on people’s lives and its responsibility to give them safety and dignity. I knew I wanted to protect people, and I knew that the people in our society who are most often targeted by predators are also most often the voiceless and vulnerable. I believed then, as I do now, no one should be left to fight alone.

Kamala Harris (archive footage) [00:21:33] Now, I knew our criminal justice system was deeply flawed, but I also knew the profound impact law enforcement has on people’s lives and its responsibility to give them safety and dignity. I knew I wanted to protect people, and I knew that the people in our society who are most often targeted by predators are also most often the voiceless and vulnerable. I believed then, as I do now, no one should be left to fight alone.

John Prideaux [00:22:15] The crowd was riveted. The energy palpable. Harris’s campaign had an auspicious start. She chose to announce a few days earlier on Martin Luther King Day. Harris proved in Oakland she could stun a crowd a few months later. She did again, this time in June, at the first Democratic primary debate hosted by NBC News in Houston. Harris got into a heated exchange with then candidate Joe Biden. Biden, she said, had partnered with segregationists to oppose policies to integrate America’s schools.

John Prideaux [00:22:15] The crowd was riveted. The energy palpable. Harris’s campaign had an auspicious start. She chose to announce a few days earlier on Martin Luther King Day. Harris proved in Oakland she could stun a crowd a few months later. She did again, this time in June, at the first Democratic primary debate hosted by NBC News in Houston. Harris got into a heated exchange with then candidate Joe Biden. Biden, she said, had partnered with segregationists to oppose policies to integrate America’s schools.

Kamala Harris (archive footage) [00:22:48] You also worked with them to oppose bussing. And, you know, there was a little girl in California who was part of the second class to integrate her public schools, and she was bussed to school every day. And that little girl was me.

Kamala Harris (archive footage) [00:22:48] You also worked with them to oppose bussing. And, you know, there was a little girl in California who was part of the second class to integrate her public schools, and she was bussed to school every day. And that little girl was me.

John Prideaux [00:23:04] With that phrase, that little girl was me. Harris went viral, but perhaps less remembered is how Joe Biden responded.

John Prideaux [00:23:04] With that phrase, that little girl was me. Harris went viral, but perhaps less remembered is how Joe Biden responded.

Joe Biden (archive footage) [00:23:12] If we want to have this campaign litigated on who supports civil rights, whether I did or not, I’m happy to do that. I was a public defender. I didn’t become a prosecutor.

Joe Biden (archive footage) [00:23:12] If we want to have this campaign litigated on who supports civil rights, whether I did or not, I’m happy to do that. I was a public defender. I didn’t become a prosecutor.

John Prideaux [00:23:21] Biden tapped into what was then seen as one of Harris’s vulnerabilities. Her time as California’s top cop, because Harris’s rhetoric was often aimed at winning over progressives. She also said during that campaign run that she backed a Green New Deal and opposed fracking. But her background as California’s attorney general before that, San Francisco’s district attorney attracted centrists, not progressives. This mismatch in policy and rhetoric continued throughout her campaign. That attack against Biden on bussing, for instance, lost a lot of its heft. Once reporters asked if you follow up questions. Harris clarified that she didn’t actually think the federal government should force school districts to bus students to integrate schools. That’s the same position Biden had on the issue. And Jake Tapper, who moderated a subsequent primary debate on CNN, brought that up.

John Prideaux [00:23:21] Biden tapped into what was then seen as one of Harris’s vulnerabilities. Her time as California’s top cop, because Harris’s rhetoric was often aimed at winning over progressives. She also said during that campaign run that she backed a Green New Deal and opposed fracking. But her background as California’s attorney general before that, San Francisco’s district attorney attracted centrists, not progressives. This mismatch in policy and rhetoric continued throughout her campaign. That attack against Biden on bussing, for instance, lost a lot of its heft. Once reporters asked if you follow up questions. Harris clarified that she didn’t actually think the federal government should force school districts to bus students to integrate schools. That’s the same position Biden had on the issue. And Jake Tapper, who moderated a subsequent primary debate on CNN, brought that up.

Jake Tapper (archive footage) [00:24:11] Vice President Biden says that your current position on bussing, you’re opposed to federally mandated bussing. That that position is the same as his position.

Jake Tapper (archive footage) [00:24:11] Vice President Biden says that your current position on bussing, you’re opposed to federally mandated bussing. That that position is the same as his position.

John Prideaux [00:24:23] Her other big flub was in health care policy. Initially, Harris backed Medicare for all, a plan proposed by progressive Bernie Sanders that would have put all Americans on government plans.

John Prideaux [00:24:23] Her other big flub was in health care policy. Initially, Harris backed Medicare for all, a plan proposed by progressive Bernie Sanders that would have put all Americans on government plans.

NBC debate (archive footage) [00:24:34] Who here would abolish their private health insurance in favour of a government-run plan.

NBC debate (archive footage) [00:24:34] Who here would abolish their private health insurance in favour of a government-run plan.

John Prideaux [00:24:44] At that same Democratic NBC debate in June of 2019, Harris was the only candidate beside Sanders to raise her hand to say she would scrap her private insurance and get on a government plan, but she later reneged on that, too, and instead came out with a plan that allowed private insurance, which she later tried to sell on American talk shows, including MSNBC’s Morning Joe.

John Prideaux [00:24:44] At that same Democratic NBC debate in June of 2019, Harris was the only candidate beside Sanders to raise her hand to say she would scrap her private insurance and get on a government plan, but she later reneged on that, too, and instead came out with a plan that allowed private insurance, which she later tried to sell on American talk shows, including MSNBC’s Morning Joe.

Kamala Harris (archive footage) [00:25:05] My Medicare for all plan is about saying, let’s make sure that cost is not a barrier to people’s access to health care. Let’s make sure that people have the option to have a private plan if that’s what they want.

Kamala Harris (archive footage) [00:25:05] My Medicare for all plan is about saying, let’s make sure that cost is not a barrier to people’s access to health care. Let’s make sure that people have the option to have a private plan if that’s what they want.

John Prideaux [00:25:16] That The Economist wrote in September of 2019, made her look opportunistic and uncommitted. In December of that year, Harris ended her campaign after months of low polling and infighting among her campaign staff. She never even made it to Iowa, the first state to vote for a Democratic nominee. That election cycle was Harris, a small town crime prosecutor, or was she a civil rights champion, a progressive or a moderate? In an effort to be everything to win over both wings of the Democratic Party. Harris failed to convincingly be either.

John Prideaux [00:25:16] That The Economist wrote in September of 2019, made her look opportunistic and uncommitted. In December of that year, Harris ended her campaign after months of low polling and infighting among her campaign staff. She never even made it to Iowa, the first state to vote for a Democratic nominee. That election cycle was Harris, a small town crime prosecutor, or was she a civil rights champion, a progressive or a moderate? In an effort to be everything to win over both wings of the Democratic Party. Harris failed to convincingly be either.

John Prideaux [00:25:53] It is looking back at that 2019 primary campaign. There are a few things that are instructive. I think one is quite how far left the left wing of the Democratic Party had travelled under Donald Trump. And the other is Harris’s willingness to adopt all of its positions. If she’s going to prosper in November, she needs to be pretty much the opposite of the candidate in that campaign, right?

John Prideaux [00:25:53] It is looking back at that 2019 primary campaign. There are a few things that are instructive. I think one is quite how far left the left wing of the Democratic Party had travelled under Donald Trump. And the other is Harris’s willingness to adopt all of its positions. If she’s going to prosper in November, she needs to be pretty much the opposite of the candidate in that campaign, right?

Idrees Kahloon [00:26:16] Yeah, I think that’s right. And that’s what gives me the most pause about Harris as the Democratic nominee and was the reason that back in January, we were thinking about whether or not Biden should step aside. We actually said that Harris should be the one who steps aside for this reason. Every politician is to some extent ideologically flexible. That’s part of the job. You know, when Barack Obama ran in 2008, he was still opposed to gay marriage. Joe Biden, when he was running in 2020, also became a lot left here than he had been in prior iterations. But the job of politics, I think, is also once you’ve made a switch to stick to it. And I think what was most concerning about Harris during that campaign was that she couldn’t make up her mind. Even throughout the campaign, she couldn’t figure out what she thought about health insurance. She endorsed a lot of positions that are going to come back and haunt her now. Banning fracking, for example, is going to be a big liability in Pennsylvania. The way that she talks about immigration enforcement at the time is going to play into Republican hands. You could make the argument that, well, that was 2019, Kamala. That doesn’t tell you anything about what she’s like today, but I think it will still have some effect. And I think it’s still will overshadow her campaign this year. I think one thing we can tell from that is she’s pretty flexible ideologically in a way not that unlike her boss, Joe Biden. What can we say about the differences between her and Biden policy wise?

Idrees Kahloon [00:26:16] Yeah, I think that’s right. And that’s what gives me the most pause about Harris as the Democratic nominee and was the reason that back in January, we were thinking about whether or not Biden should step aside. We actually said that Harris should be the one who steps aside for this reason. Every politician is to some extent ideologically flexible. That’s part of the job. You know, when Barack Obama ran in 2008, he was still opposed to gay marriage. Joe Biden, when he was running in 2020, also became a lot left here than he had been in prior iterations. But the job of politics, I think, is also once you’ve made a switch to stick to it. And I think what was most concerning about Harris during that campaign was that she couldn’t make up her mind. Even throughout the campaign, she couldn’t figure out what she thought about health insurance. She endorsed a lot of positions that are going to come back and haunt her now. Banning fracking, for example, is going to be a big liability in Pennsylvania. The way that she talks about immigration enforcement at the time is going to play into Republican hands. You could make the argument that, well, that was 2019, Kamala. That doesn’t tell you anything about what she’s like today, but I think it will still have some effect. And I think it’s still will overshadow her campaign this year. I think one thing we can tell from that is she’s pretty flexible ideologically in a way not that unlike her boss, Joe Biden. What can we say about the differences between her and Biden policy wise?

Charlotte Howard [00:27:45] Yeah, I think she has a really delicate task here. And Steve referred to this a bit in our conversation that we had earlier this week, but one, she has to define herself in this election compared with a prior presentation of herself in 2019. And then also she has to define herself in relation to President Biden. And there’s the immediate rhetorical and stylistic difference, i.e. she’s clearly going to be more forceful, more dynamic, more generally animated than Biden. But then there’s the question of whether she just supports the same set of policies. And in Selma earlier this year, in a speech that she was making, she called for an immediate ceasefire in Israel, which Biden hadn’t at the time called for. And that seemed stylistically bold. But then in the end, actually, it was really more of a rhetorical difference than a substantive one. If you look at other areas, I think the biggest difference is that she’s very comfortable, unlike the Catholic president talking about abortion. And she can much more effectively talk to voters about reproductive rights and about Donald Trump’s role in overturning Roe v Wade. And then, you know, on a couple really big issues that are important to Republicans, fracking being one of them. I was struck last week at the Republican convention, the huge applause line that you would get of any mention of drilling on American soil and energy independence. It just was something that really got the crowd fired up. And this is a problem for her, as address mentioned in Pennsylvania. On the other hand, Pennsylvania has had record natural gas production during the Biden years. It is part of a hydrogen hub, which is the result of a Biden administration program. The EPA just recently gave about $390 million in grants specifically to Pennsylvania to reduce emissions from industrial sites. So there I don’t know that she wants to distance herself much from Biden. I think that they have something to brag about actually.

Charlotte Howard [00:27:45] Yeah, I think she has a really delicate task here. And Steve referred to this a bit in our conversation that we had earlier this week, but one, she has to define herself in this election compared with a prior presentation of herself in 2019. And then also she has to define herself in relation to President Biden. And there’s the immediate rhetorical and stylistic difference, i.e. she’s clearly going to be more forceful, more dynamic, more generally animated than Biden. But then there’s the question of whether she just supports the same set of policies. And in Selma earlier this year, in a speech that she was making, she called for an immediate ceasefire in Israel, which Biden hadn’t at the time called for. And that seemed stylistically bold. But then in the end, actually, it was really more of a rhetorical difference than a substantive one. If you look at other areas, I think the biggest difference is that she’s very comfortable, unlike the Catholic president talking about abortion. And she can much more effectively talk to voters about reproductive rights and about Donald Trump’s role in overturning Roe v Wade. And then, you know, on a couple really big issues that are important to Republicans, fracking being one of them. I was struck last week at the Republican convention, the huge applause line that you would get of any mention of drilling on American soil and energy independence. It just was something that really got the crowd fired up. And this is a problem for her, as address mentioned in Pennsylvania. On the other hand, Pennsylvania has had record natural gas production during the Biden years. It is part of a hydrogen hub, which is the result of a Biden administration program. The EPA just recently gave about $390 million in grants specifically to Pennsylvania to reduce emissions from industrial sites. So there I don’t know that she wants to distance herself much from Biden. I think that they have something to brag about actually.

John Prideaux [00:29:51] Idrees, as Charlotte’s answer there on foreign policy indicated, when you’re looking at Biden and Harris, you’ve got to really tease out the differences. I think it’s safest to assume that on both foreign policy and domestic policy in the 2024 version of Harris is pretty close to where Joe Biden is. Do you agree with that? Do you think there’s more difference?

John Prideaux [00:29:51] Idrees, as Charlotte’s answer there on foreign policy indicated, when you’re looking at Biden and Harris, you’ve got to really tease out the differences. I think it’s safest to assume that on both foreign policy and domestic policy in the 2024 version of Harris is pretty close to where Joe Biden is. Do you agree with that? Do you think there’s more difference?

Idrees Kahloon [00:30:08] Yeah, I agree with that. I agree with the examples that that Charlotte pointed out on abortion. She is much more forceful rhetorically than Biden has ever been. The other differences I think you have to really search for. She might give a few speeches just to show that she knows all the details and can manage the portfolios, but I don’t expect that she will rock the boat. Even on the campaign, she’s kept Biden’s infrastructure. She’s kept Biden’s campaign manager campaign chair. A lot of this is as close to copying Harris’s name and putting it in for Biden’s as as they could make it. Joe Biden had the famous line against Giuliani. Every sentence, he says, is a noun, a verb in nine over 11, I think. For Democrats, their strategy is going to be for this campaign a noun, a verb, an abortion. And for Republicans, it will be a noun, a verb, and the border. And so we probably have four months of that ahead of us.

Idrees Kahloon [00:30:08] Yeah, I agree with that. I agree with the examples that that Charlotte pointed out on abortion. She is much more forceful rhetorically than Biden has ever been. The other differences I think you have to really search for. She might give a few speeches just to show that she knows all the details and can manage the portfolios, but I don’t expect that she will rock the boat. Even on the campaign, she’s kept Biden’s infrastructure. She’s kept Biden’s campaign manager campaign chair. A lot of this is as close to copying Harris’s name and putting it in for Biden’s as as they could make it. Joe Biden had the famous line against Giuliani. Every sentence, he says, is a noun, a verb in nine over 11, I think. For Democrats, their strategy is going to be for this campaign a noun, a verb, an abortion. And for Republicans, it will be a noun, a verb, and the border. And so we probably have four months of that ahead of us.

John Prideaux [00:31:07] Can’t wait. I mean, one of the things you can do when you’re trying to work out what people’s ideological leanings are when there’s not a whole load to go on, is look at the people they hire to advise them. And if you look on foreign policy, Harris has Phillip Gordon, who’s a very sensible, experienced centrist guy, somebody I think we would all find a lot to agree with on. And on economic policy. She hired Mike Pyle to run that portfolio for her when she became vice president. He’s also really sensible moderate centrist Democrats. So those things I think bodes quite well. Okay. We’ll be back in a moment to discuss what Harris’s pathway to victory might look like.

John Prideaux [00:31:07] Can’t wait. I mean, one of the things you can do when you’re trying to work out what people’s ideological leanings are when there’s not a whole load to go on, is look at the people they hire to advise them. And if you look on foreign policy, Harris has Phillip Gordon, who’s a very sensible, experienced centrist guy, somebody I think we would all find a lot to agree with on. And on economic policy. She hired Mike Pyle to run that portfolio for her when she became vice president. He’s also really sensible moderate centrist Democrats. So those things I think bodes quite well. Okay. We’ll be back in a moment to discuss what Harris’s pathway to victory might look like.

John Prideaux [00:31:58] Idrees, I think the three of us came out of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee last week feeling that Donald Trump was the overwhelming favourite to be the next president. It’s a bit early to know how changing the top of the ticket will change. That will improve Democrats fortunes. We need to have a bit more polling before we can come to a judgement on that, but I know that’s a question you’ve been thinking about a fair bit this week, and you also talk to Owen Winter, who’s one of our data journalists who helps to build our election forecast model to get a bit of a better sense of what we ought to look for as the polls begin to roll in.

John Prideaux [00:31:58] Idrees, I think the three of us came out of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee last week feeling that Donald Trump was the overwhelming favourite to be the next president. It’s a bit early to know how changing the top of the ticket will change. That will improve Democrats fortunes. We need to have a bit more polling before we can come to a judgement on that, but I know that’s a question you’ve been thinking about a fair bit this week, and you also talk to Owen Winter, who’s one of our data journalists who helps to build our election forecast model to get a bit of a better sense of what we ought to look for as the polls begin to roll in.

Idrees Kahloon [00:32:32] Yeah. That’s right. Owen works on our presidential model, like you said, which now has a gigantic hitch thrown at it. So he’s going to be busy on that. I wanted to talk to him to get a sense of what to make of the polls so far. What sort of conclusions can we draw from the polls about Harris and Trump? Before Biden announced he wouldn’t be running again, and the polls that have come out since she’s become the presumptive nominee.

Idrees Kahloon [00:32:32] Yeah. That’s right. Owen works on our presidential model, like you said, which now has a gigantic hitch thrown at it. So he’s going to be busy on that. I wanted to talk to him to get a sense of what to make of the polls so far. What sort of conclusions can we draw from the polls about Harris and Trump? Before Biden announced he wouldn’t be running again, and the polls that have come out since she’s become the presumptive nominee.

Owen Winter [00:32:55] We could see in hypothetical head to head polls that up until the debate, Harris was kind of running a little bit behind where Joe Biden was. So on average, Trump had a six point lead over Harris before the debate. Then obviously, that was the disastrous debate for Democrats, and Joe Biden’s numbers fell. But also, we saw a little bit of an uptick for Harris, which was perhaps voters realising that she actually might be the candidate. And after that, she was being led by Trump by about three points. I don’t think we’ve got enough polling to say for certain yet what it looks like after Joe Biden’s withdrawal. But in general, hypothetical polling has historically been quite a poor measure of how voters will react to a situation in reality. So I think we should have a lot of scepticism about the hypothetical matchups up until now, and also consider that the news environment has changed so quickly in the last few weeks. We went from the debate to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump to the Republican National Convention to Joe Biden withdrawing. So public opinion is still reacting to all those events.

Owen Winter [00:32:55] We could see in hypothetical head to head polls that up until the debate, Harris was kind of running a little bit behind where Joe Biden was. So on average, Trump had a six point lead over Harris before the debate. Then obviously, that was the disastrous debate for Democrats, and Joe Biden’s numbers fell. But also, we saw a little bit of an uptick for Harris, which was perhaps voters realising that she actually might be the candidate. And after that, she was being led by Trump by about three points. I don’t think we’ve got enough polling to say for certain yet what it looks like after Joe Biden’s withdrawal. But in general, hypothetical polling has historically been quite a poor measure of how voters will react to a situation in reality. So I think we should have a lot of scepticism about the hypothetical matchups up until now, and also consider that the news environment has changed so quickly in the last few weeks. We went from the debate to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump to the Republican National Convention to Joe Biden withdrawing. So public opinion is still reacting to all those events.

Idrees Kahloon [00:34:03] Yeah, I felt each day of those three weeks deeply in my bones. So I wonder how long do you think it might take before voters process all the tumult of the last month? And we have a reliable baseline for how Kamala Harris will compare against Donald Trump. There’s some expectations management going on. Right. I saw that Donald Trump’s pollster pre-emptively said that, you know, you might see a bump. Don’t get too scared. There’s this idea that there’s a honeymoon that might go on now, as Democrats consolidate around Harris and the DNC is soon to take place. So when do you think things might settle down to the point that we we actually know where Harris stands relative to Donald Trump?

Idrees Kahloon [00:34:03] Yeah, I felt each day of those three weeks deeply in my bones. So I wonder how long do you think it might take before voters process all the tumult of the last month? And we have a reliable baseline for how Kamala Harris will compare against Donald Trump. There’s some expectations management going on. Right. I saw that Donald Trump’s pollster pre-emptively said that, you know, you might see a bump. Don’t get too scared. There’s this idea that there’s a honeymoon that might go on now, as Democrats consolidate around Harris and the DNC is soon to take place. So when do you think things might settle down to the point that we we actually know where Harris stands relative to Donald Trump?

Owen Winter [00:34:43] It’s moved so quickly from, the media environment, which is very, very favourable for Donald Trump, flipping over to news stories which are almost all about Harris and her getting these big endorsements from key Democrats. So it’ll take probably a couple of weeks before voters are getting past that immediate volatility, and they’ll probably then be another kind of week or so until we get polling, which reflects that, and then maybe a week more until you have enough polls to make a decent average. And that already takes you, as you say, up until the Democratic National Convention in the middle of August, when, again, we’ll expect Democrats to have a little boost. So it might not actually be until early September. And so we got a kind of reasonably stable head to head set of polls between Harris and Trump. And in the meantime, as well, The Economist will be relaunching our presidential forecast and our poll tracker as well. We’ll take a couple of weeks to relaunch that with Harris Trump figures.

Owen Winter [00:34:43] It’s moved so quickly from, the media environment, which is very, very favourable for Donald Trump, flipping over to news stories which are almost all about Harris and her getting these big endorsements from key Democrats. So it’ll take probably a couple of weeks before voters are getting past that immediate volatility, and they’ll probably then be another kind of week or so until we get polling, which reflects that, and then maybe a week more until you have enough polls to make a decent average. And that already takes you, as you say, up until the Democratic National Convention in the middle of August, when, again, we’ll expect Democrats to have a little boost. So it might not actually be until early September. And so we got a kind of reasonably stable head to head set of polls between Harris and Trump. And in the meantime, as well, The Economist will be relaunching our presidential forecast and our poll tracker as well. We’ll take a couple of weeks to relaunch that with Harris Trump figures.

Idrees Kahloon [00:35:43] So for those of us who maybe can’t wait until September to get a sense of how this race will look, there is an impulse to look at other measures that pollsters are reporting. So, for example, our poll today showed that Kamala Harris had a bit of a favorability boost, I think 5 or 6 points compared to the week before. There seems to be growing enthusiasm among Democratic voters compared to the weeks before. Do you think that those are leading indicators that perhaps when the race does settle down, that Harris will be in a closer position to Trump than President Biden was?

Idrees Kahloon [00:35:43] So for those of us who maybe can’t wait until September to get a sense of how this race will look, there is an impulse to look at other measures that pollsters are reporting. So, for example, our poll today showed that Kamala Harris had a bit of a favorability boost, I think 5 or 6 points compared to the week before. There seems to be growing enthusiasm among Democratic voters compared to the weeks before. Do you think that those are leading indicators that perhaps when the race does settle down, that Harris will be in a closer position to Trump than President Biden was?

Owen Winter [00:36:20] I would be very wary of describing any of the kind of polling questions that we’re looking at as leading measures. I think the amount of uncertainty there is and the news and in polling means that there’s a lot of potential scenarios going forward for Harris’s electability. I do think from a Democrats perspective, there’s a lot of good signs. As you said, our latest YouGov poll. We saw the number of Democrats saying they’re enthusiastic about voting for president, went from 62% before Biden withdrew to 74% in this week’s numbers, which, I mean, that is a very striking figure. And it shows at least that there’s some excitement amongst Democrats. But also, I mean, we’ve seen polling that showed that overwhelmingly Democrats and Republicans approved of Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race. So at the very least, it’s kind of shaking things up and giving Democrats something to talk about other than a president who’s been really struggling recently. So it’s not clear from polling alone whether Kamala Harris is going to go on to win. I would say she’s probably still an underdog, but you would rather have a very uncertain race where your candidate has a decent chance of winning versus an increasingly certain race, which Joe Biden looked as though he was going on to lose.

Owen Winter [00:36:20] I would be very wary of describing any of the kind of polling questions that we’re looking at as leading measures. I think the amount of uncertainty there is and the news and in polling means that there’s a lot of potential scenarios going forward for Harris’s electability. I do think from a Democrats perspective, there’s a lot of good signs. As you said, our latest YouGov poll. We saw the number of Democrats saying they’re enthusiastic about voting for president, went from 62% before Biden withdrew to 74% in this week’s numbers, which, I mean, that is a very striking figure. And it shows at least that there’s some excitement amongst Democrats. But also, I mean, we’ve seen polling that showed that overwhelmingly Democrats and Republicans approved of Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race. So at the very least, it’s kind of shaking things up and giving Democrats something to talk about other than a president who’s been really struggling recently. So it’s not clear from polling alone whether Kamala Harris is going to go on to win. I would say she’s probably still an underdog, but you would rather have a very uncertain race where your candidate has a decent chance of winning versus an increasingly certain race, which Joe Biden looked as though he was going on to lose.

Idrees Kahloon [00:37:36] So could you tell us over the next weeks, what are you going to be looking for as you read the polling results that come out? Harris’s campaign has said that she could expand her margins among young voters, African American voters, Hispanic voters, as were groups that, Joe Biden seem to not be doing as well in as he needed to be. Will you be looking at that subgroup level, or what sort of indicators do you think will be kind of most important to pay attention to?

Idrees Kahloon [00:37:36] So could you tell us over the next weeks, what are you going to be looking for as you read the polling results that come out? Harris’s campaign has said that she could expand her margins among young voters, African American voters, Hispanic voters, as were groups that, Joe Biden seem to not be doing as well in as he needed to be. Will you be looking at that subgroup level, or what sort of indicators do you think will be kind of most important to pay attention to?

Owen Winter [00:38:03] Yeah. So there’s two sides to that coin. One is that Democrats hope that Kamala Harris can enthuse young people and non-white voters to get behind the Democrats, as they did in 2020. But there’s also a potential problem that Joe Biden, while he was doing very poorly across the board, his decline in popularity was smallest amongst older white voters who happened to be overrepresented in key swing states, especially in the Midwest. So actually, probably the number one indicator I’ll be looking for is swing state polls. What we were expecting in this Joe Biden Donald Trump rematch was for the states to broadly stay in line with what they did in 2020. So we were expecting a kind of uniform swing. Kamala Harris, perhaps she is much more popular in certain swing states or unpopular. So I think it will be interesting to see whether she’s performing better or worse than Joe Biden in those states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin that she needs to win the Electoral College. And that’s something that obviously our forecast will aggregate and turn into a probabilistic estimate. But getting those first few swing state polls out will be really interesting.

Owen Winter [00:38:03] Yeah. So there’s two sides to that coin. One is that Democrats hope that Kamala Harris can enthuse young people and non-white voters to get behind the Democrats, as they did in 2020. But there’s also a potential problem that Joe Biden, while he was doing very poorly across the board, his decline in popularity was smallest amongst older white voters who happened to be overrepresented in key swing states, especially in the Midwest. So actually, probably the number one indicator I’ll be looking for is swing state polls. What we were expecting in this Joe Biden Donald Trump rematch was for the states to broadly stay in line with what they did in 2020. So we were expecting a kind of uniform swing. Kamala Harris, perhaps she is much more popular in certain swing states or unpopular. So I think it will be interesting to see whether she’s performing better or worse than Joe Biden in those states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin that she needs to win the Electoral College. And that’s something that obviously our forecast will aggregate and turn into a probabilistic estimate. But getting those first few swing state polls out will be really interesting.

John Prideaux [00:39:24] So, Charlotte, we’re all eager to see how Kamala Harris matches up against Donald Trump. But from what Owen says, we might have to wait a little while until some of the noise in the polls settles down, maybe waits until the beginning of September.

John Prideaux [00:39:24] So, Charlotte, we’re all eager to see how Kamala Harris matches up against Donald Trump. But from what Owen says, we might have to wait a little while until some of the noise in the polls settles down, maybe waits until the beginning of September.

Charlotte Howard [00:39:38] I was interested in that analysis as well. I also was interested in something that our colleagues wrote about in our assessment of the polls today, which is that a good 7% of voters don’t have a real sense of who Harris is. And this goes back to our earlier conversation. That’s a share that is more than enough to swing the election one way or another. And I think that it underscores just how important these next few weeks are for her to reintroduce herself to the American people, for her to make a positive impression so that as the kind of weird noise that we see in the polls starts to settle down, that the results that we see in September reflect a new assured sense of Harris, the presidential nominee.

Charlotte Howard [00:39:38] I was interested in that analysis as well. I also was interested in something that our colleagues wrote about in our assessment of the polls today, which is that a good 7% of voters don’t have a real sense of who Harris is. And this goes back to our earlier conversation. That’s a share that is more than enough to swing the election one way or another. And I think that it underscores just how important these next few weeks are for her to reintroduce herself to the American people, for her to make a positive impression so that as the kind of weird noise that we see in the polls starts to settle down, that the results that we see in September reflect a new assured sense of Harris, the presidential nominee.

John Prideaux [00:40:23] Idrees, the selection of running mate tends not to change polling a huge amount, but it will tell us something about the Harris campaign’s theory of victory. Who are you expecting to be on the shortlist?

John Prideaux [00:40:23] Idrees, the selection of running mate tends not to change polling a huge amount, but it will tell us something about the Harris campaign’s theory of victory. Who are you expecting to be on the shortlist?

Idrees Kahloon [00:40:33] Right now, the shortlist appears to be mild mannered white men who are either governors or senators. So there are people like Roy Cooper from North Carolina, Andy Beshear from Kentucky. Both of them are governors. And then Mark Kelly, who is a senator from Arizona, also happens to be an astronaut, which doesn’t hurt. Josh Shapiro, who is the governor of Pennsylvania, is also on the shortlist. And I think that tells us a couple of things. It could be that she is making a geographic play for a place like Pennsylvania or Arizona. And I think her instinct will be to present herself as more moderate by picking someone who is not a kind of arch progressive. And Charlotte, the Trump campaign has a new target to go after. What can you tell from its early pronouncements in the kind of emails filling your inbox about how they plan to attack Harris?

Idrees Kahloon [00:40:33] Right now, the shortlist appears to be mild mannered white men who are either governors or senators. So there are people like Roy Cooper from North Carolina, Andy Beshear from Kentucky. Both of them are governors. And then Mark Kelly, who is a senator from Arizona, also happens to be an astronaut, which doesn’t hurt. Josh Shapiro, who is the governor of Pennsylvania, is also on the shortlist. And I think that tells us a couple of things. It could be that she is making a geographic play for a place like Pennsylvania or Arizona. And I think her instinct will be to present herself as more moderate by picking someone who is not a kind of arch progressive. And Charlotte, the Trump campaign has a new target to go after. What can you tell from its early pronouncements in the kind of emails filling your inbox about how they plan to attack Harris?

Charlotte Howard [00:41:24] Well, I guess before getting to how they plan to attack Harris now, I think it’s worth dwelling on their strategy. Up until Sunday and through the convention, there were two choices that the Trump campaign made in the past month, in the style of their convention and in their choice of vice president. One is that they really decided to play to the base. Right. Vance has a choice not to win over marginal voters. He’s a choice to turn out Trump enthusiasts. And the convention was very much about playing to that base. And two, he focussed the convention on Biden himself. There was this era of inevitability in Milwaukee and true elation that Biden’s announcement immediately punctured on Sunday. And to your initial question, John, they’re trying to rev up the argument that Kamala Harris is, in fact, worse than Biden, that she’s a left wing ideologue. You know, that she’s been the enabler in chief for Crooked Joe this whole time, from the campaign statements in recent days. As I mentioned earlier, you already see ads that show her statements from 2019, whether it’s on fracking or red meat. But I also think there’s a real risk for this campaign in going too far in the way that they attack Harris. You saw even this week, Mike Johnson, the speaker of the House, have to tell Republicans not to make this race about attacking Harris’s race and gender. Don Jr has tweeted in the past something questioning whether Harris is really black. And then he deleted that tweet. But I think it takes a lot of discipline for Trump himself and for some in his family to remain consistently on message, and I’m just not sure that they will be able to stick to the argument, just that she’s linked with Joe Biden and just that she is left wing. I think there’s a risk that in attacking her, they end up making a misstep that damages them.

Charlotte Howard [00:41:24] Well, I guess before getting to how they plan to attack Harris now, I think it’s worth dwelling on their strategy. Up until Sunday and through the convention, there were two choices that the Trump campaign made in the past month, in the style of their convention and in their choice of vice president. One is that they really decided to play to the base. Right. Vance has a choice not to win over marginal voters. He’s a choice to turn out Trump enthusiasts. And the convention was very much about playing to that base. And two, he focussed the convention on Biden himself. There was this era of inevitability in Milwaukee and true elation that Biden’s announcement immediately punctured on Sunday. And to your initial question, John, they’re trying to rev up the argument that Kamala Harris is, in fact, worse than Biden, that she’s a left wing ideologue. You know, that she’s been the enabler in chief for Crooked Joe this whole time, from the campaign statements in recent days. As I mentioned earlier, you already see ads that show her statements from 2019, whether it’s on fracking or red meat. But I also think there’s a real risk for this campaign in going too far in the way that they attack Harris. You saw even this week, Mike Johnson, the speaker of the House, have to tell Republicans not to make this race about attacking Harris’s race and gender. Don Jr has tweeted in the past something questioning whether Harris is really black. And then he deleted that tweet. But I think it takes a lot of discipline for Trump himself and for some in his family to remain consistently on message, and I’m just not sure that they will be able to stick to the argument, just that she’s linked with Joe Biden and just that she is left wing. I think there’s a risk that in attacking her, they end up making a misstep that damages them.

Idrees Kahloon [00:43:26] I think Trump’s campaign has been a lot more disciplined this time around. Don Junior my mouth off on Twitter or wherever else. But the big thing that we’ve seen them try to do this week is label her. The borders are. And her retort to that is that she was not. The borders are. She was just in charge of addressing the root causes of migration. So that’s going to be the tightrope that she tries to walk. They’re going to hit her on the Afghanistan withdrawal and the other things that they don’t like about the Biden administration. And they’re also going to say that she knew that Biden was declining and hid that from the American people. And I think that’s also another reason why it’s very important for her to very clearly set out what she’s running for in the next few days, because if she doesn’t do that, then Republicans get to define her however they wish. And obviously that’s not going to be a good picture for her.

Idrees Kahloon [00:43:26] I think Trump’s campaign has been a lot more disciplined this time around. Don Junior my mouth off on Twitter or wherever else. But the big thing that we’ve seen them try to do this week is label her. The borders are. And her retort to that is that she was not. The borders are. She was just in charge of addressing the root causes of migration. So that’s going to be the tightrope that she tries to walk. They’re going to hit her on the Afghanistan withdrawal and the other things that they don’t like about the Biden administration. And they’re also going to say that she knew that Biden was declining and hid that from the American people. And I think that’s also another reason why it’s very important for her to very clearly set out what she’s running for in the next few days, because if she doesn’t do that, then Republicans get to define her however they wish. And obviously that’s not going to be a good picture for her.

Charlotte Howard [00:44:14] So I totally agree with everything you just said. And my point initially is not that the campaign is undisciplined, it’s that Trump himself is undisciplined. I think the campaign has a very. Clear strategy, which is as you outlined. I’m just not convinced that Donald Trump himself will be the most effective communicator of that.

Charlotte Howard [00:44:14] So I totally agree with everything you just said. And my point initially is not that the campaign is undisciplined, it’s that Trump himself is undisciplined. I think the campaign has a very. Clear strategy, which is as you outlined. I’m just not convinced that Donald Trump himself will be the most effective communicator of that.

John Prideaux [00:44:32] I think there is something that the Harris campaign can learn from the Trump campaign about strategy, and that is that in order to be a successful candidate, you often have to separate yourself from the positions that those in your base hold most dearly. So to the degree that the Trump campaign has been disciplined this time around, it has been in things like getting rid of all mention of abortion from the RNC platform. And I think if Harris is going to moderate, then over the next few weeks, you need to look for her doing some things that will make progressive Democrats feel uncomfortable. You know, I think she should get herself down to a shooting range with cops in Philadelphia and go and spend some time with people fracking gas in rural Pennsylvania. I think on immigration, she needs to make it clear that she favours the position that something like Barack Obama’s immigration policy. When he was president, he was pretty clear that America was a country that welcomes newcomers. But at the same time, existing immigration laws need to be enforced. I think one of the things that Democrats really underrate is the degree to which voters generally think they are more ideologically distant from the centre than Republicans are. And one of the things that haunts me a lot about 2016 and Trump’s victory, looking back at that, is he was perceived as ideologically more moderate than Hillary Clinton was. So Harris now has a fairly short window in which she needs to define herself as being more moderate than the Democratic Party. That was one of Joe Biden’s strengths as a candidate. That’s something that Harris needs to work really, really hard on. And I don’t think it’s just a question of who she picks as Veep. So that’s what I’m going to be looking for over the next few weeks. Okay. Well, we’ll come back to a lot of this in future episodes, but let’s leave things here for now. I have a quiz for you. My first question is on winning the presidency from the position of vice president. So four people have succeeded in doing what Kamala Harris is doing now, being the sitting vice president and challenging for the presidency. Can you name them?

John Prideaux [00:44:32] I think there is something that the Harris campaign can learn from the Trump campaign about strategy, and that is that in order to be a successful candidate, you often have to separate yourself from the positions that those in your base hold most dearly. So to the degree that the Trump campaign has been disciplined this time around, it has been in things like getting rid of all mention of abortion from the RNC platform. And I think if Harris is going to moderate, then over the next few weeks, you need to look for her doing some things that will make progressive Democrats feel uncomfortable. You know, I think she should get herself down to a shooting range with cops in Philadelphia and go and spend some time with people fracking gas in rural Pennsylvania. I think on immigration, she needs to make it clear that she favours the position that something like Barack Obama’s immigration policy. When he was president, he was pretty clear that America was a country that welcomes newcomers. But at the same time, existing immigration laws need to be enforced. I think one of the things that Democrats really underrate is the degree to which voters generally think they are more ideologically distant from the centre than Republicans are. And one of the things that haunts me a lot about 2016 and Trump’s victory, looking back at that, is he was perceived as ideologically more moderate than Hillary Clinton was. So Harris now has a fairly short window in which she needs to define herself as being more moderate than the Democratic Party. That was one of Joe Biden’s strengths as a candidate. That’s something that Harris needs to work really, really hard on. And I don’t think it’s just a question of who she picks as Veep. So that’s what I’m going to be looking for over the next few weeks. Okay. Well, we’ll come back to a lot of this in future episodes, but let’s leave things here for now. I have a quiz for you. My first question is on winning the presidency from the position of vice president. So four people have succeeded in doing what Kamala Harris is doing now, being the sitting vice president and challenging for the presidency. Can you name them?

Charlotte Howard [00:46:35] So H.W. George H.W. Bush.

Charlotte Howard [00:46:35] So H.W. George H.W. Bush.

John Prideaux [00:46:39] George H.W. tick, three left.

John Prideaux [00:46:39] George H.W. tick, three left.

Idrees Kahloon [00:46:41] I think John Adams.

Idrees Kahloon [00:46:41] I think John Adams.

John Prideaux [00:46:44] Is correct.

Charlotte Howard [00:46:45] You know, I am not lying. I was about to say John Adams, but that’s the only other one I could think of. I don’t know any of the others. Idrees, over to you.

Charlotte Howard [00:46:45] You know, I am not lying. I was about to say John Adams, but that’s the only other one I could think of. I don’t know any of the others. Idrees, over to you.

Idrees Kahloon [00:46:54] There’s another early one. Was John Quincy Adams even earlier? Even earlier? Was it Monroe?

Idrees Kahloon [00:46:54] There’s another early one. Was John Quincy Adams even earlier? Even earlier? Was it Monroe?

John Prideaux [00:47:02] So you guys have got two out of four. So I give you the other two.

John Prideaux [00:47:02] So you guys have got two out of four. So I give you the other two.

Charlotte Howard [00:47:05] Yeah. Do it for the state of Missouri.

Charlotte Howard [00:47:05] Yeah. Do it for the state of Missouri.

John Prideaux [00:47:08] One of them, I feel like, is always an answer to a quiz question. Martin Van Buren. And the other is Thomas Jefferson.

John Prideaux [00:47:08] One of them, I feel like, is always an answer to a quiz question. Martin Van Buren. And the other is Thomas Jefferson.

Charlotte Howard [00:47:14] Interesting. Okay. Question two. We’re ready.

Charlotte Howard [00:47:14] Interesting. Okay. Question two. We’re ready.

John Prideaux [00:47:16] Question two. And what year was the first woman elected to Congress? The closest answer wins.

John Prideaux [00:47:16] Question two. And what year was the first woman elected to Congress? The closest answer wins.

Who is Kamala Harris?

Our weekly podcast on democracy in America. We consider what the presumptive Democratic nominee stands for and whether she can win

Transcript

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