A rock in a hard place

The Weekend Intelligence - A rock in a hard place | Podcasts | The Economist

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The Weekend Intelligence: A rock in a hard place

Residents ride a motorcycle at the Philippine-occupied Thitu island, locally called Pag-asa island at the disputed South China Sea.

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The South China Sea is one of the world’s most hotly contested waters. In the Spratly Islands, the Philippines and China are facing off over who has control of the lucrative fish stocks and natural resources. Filipinos are developing rocks and turning them into habitable islands. The Chinese have been building artificial islands on top of reefs and patrolling the area with coast guard vessels that aggressively confront Filipino fishermen.

The South China Sea is one of the world’s most hotly contested waters. In the Spratly Islands, the Philippines and China are facing off over who has control of the lucrative fish stocks and natural resources. Filipinos are developing rocks and turning them into habitable islands. The Chinese have been building artificial islands on top of reefs and patrolling the area with coast guard vessels that aggressively confront Filipino fishermen.

Sue-Lin Wong joins a tourist ship sailing through this geo-political storm to meet the fishermen and islanders trying to carve out a life in troubled waters.

The Weekend Intelligence

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Jason Palmer [00:00:03] The economist. There’s an old idea in philosophy that the map is not the territory. That’s an abstract representation of a thing is not that thing is not the reality. Nowhere is that more pointedly, problematically true than the body of water bounded by China, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. First of all, not everyone is even working to the same map. Let’s start with China’s so-called nine dash line, an imaginary U-shaped frontier stretching hundreds of miles that stakes a claim over what China calls the South China Sea. For the Taiwanese, it’s the 11 dash line. For Indonesians, parts of what the line encloses are the Natuna Sea. For the Vietnamese, it’s the East Sea. For Filipinos, parts of the West Philippine Sea. That’s tricky enough when it comes to claims over who gets the fishy and maybe oily spoils of those waters. But it gets even more philosophically slippery when there’s not even agreement on what’s in them. Like, when does a hastily dumped pile of rocks become an island to be claimed? What better way to investigate these wispy notions in fiercely contested waters than to put on a floppy hat and jump on a tourist boat into the fray? I’m Jason Palmer, and this is the weekend intelligence. My colleague Sue Lynn Wong headed to the Spratly Islands. A shotgun blast of cays and reefs and atolls smack in the middle of whatever you call this sea. Many of them are uninhabited or uninhabitable. But the people who have made a life on these islands find themselves at the pointy end of a huge geopolitical tussle.

Jason Palmer [00:00:03] The economist. There’s an old idea in philosophy that the map is not the territory. That’s an abstract representation of a thing is not that thing is not the reality. Nowhere is that more pointedly, problematically true than the body of water bounded by China, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. First of all, not everyone is even working to the same map. Let’s start with China’s so-called nine dash line, an imaginary U-shaped frontier stretching hundreds of miles that stakes a claim over what China calls the South China Sea. For the Taiwanese, it’s the 11 dash line. For Indonesians, parts of what the line encloses are the Natuna Sea. For the Vietnamese, it’s the East Sea. For Filipinos, parts of the West Philippine Sea. That’s tricky enough when it comes to claims over who gets the fishy and maybe oily spoils of those waters. But it gets even more philosophically slippery when there’s not even agreement on what’s in them. Like, when does a hastily dumped pile of rocks become an island to be claimed? What better way to investigate these wispy notions in fiercely contested waters than to put on a floppy hat and jump on a tourist boat into the fray? I’m Jason Palmer, and this is the weekend intelligence. My colleague Sue Lynn Wong headed to the Spratly Islands. A shotgun blast of cays and reefs and atolls smack in the middle of whatever you call this sea. Many of them are uninhabited or uninhabitable. But the people who have made a life on these islands find themselves at the pointy end of a huge geopolitical tussle.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:02:07] Southeast Asia is a Paradise for holiday makers, from four main parties in Thailand to silent meditation retreats in Bali. There’s something for everyone, but I’m pretty sure I’ve discovered the most bizarre holiday adventure in the region. It all starts on Facebook when I come across a post that catches my eye. Spratly Islands tourism. Your greatest adventure yet? Whether you’re traveling for adventure or curiosity, the Spratlys will not disappoint. The Spratlys are a cluster of small islands spread across a vast area in one of the most contested waterways in the world, the South China Sea. The islands sit along major international shipping lanes with some of the world’s most abundant fishing waters. They’re both strategically and economically important to the various countries that claim them as their own. As Southeast Asia correspondent, I’m fascinated by the power play unfolding in the South China Sea. It’s a part of the world fraught with risks of armed conflict that could ultimately pit America against China. I message the group, but I’m swiftly told they don’t accept foreigners for the summer tour. The boat is only a local vessel, they tell me, and I quote, not very comfortable. Instead, I’m offered the option of joining a fish and dive expedition on a luxury liveaboard dive boat for $3,000. There’ll be one dive each day on three different islands in the Spratlys. On board housekeeping, speedboat transfers during excursions, massages and one premium souvenir item per guest. My husband is suddenly keen to join. But then, 11 days before the trip, another email. The yacht is broken. There is, however, space on the not very comfortable local vessel. My husband’s enthusiasm evaporates in an instant. And that’s how I end up being picked up in the dead of night and driven in a minibus for hours to better. As a port in Palawan, the province in the Philippines closest to the South China Sea. I immediately spot a problem. They haven’t finished building the boat that is meant to be taking us to what the Filipinos call Pagasa, but is internationally known as P2. This is one of the biggest islands in the Spratlys. Workmen hammer away on the vessel while I loiter. Exhausted in the sweltering heat at the port. I’m traveling with around 40 local Filipino tourists and a handful of other journalists. We wait like this for hours. But if anybody can inject a dose of optimism into the bleakest of prospects, it is the tour’s organizer. Can who? Panda.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:02:07] Southeast Asia is a Paradise for holiday makers, from four main parties in Thailand to silent meditation retreats in Bali. There’s something for everyone, but I’m pretty sure I’ve discovered the most bizarre holiday adventure in the region. It all starts on Facebook when I come across a post that catches my eye. Spratly Islands tourism. Your greatest adventure yet? Whether you’re traveling for adventure or curiosity, the Spratlys will not disappoint. The Spratlys are a cluster of small islands spread across a vast area in one of the most contested waterways in the world, the South China Sea. The islands sit along major international shipping lanes with some of the world’s most abundant fishing waters. They’re both strategically and economically important to the various countries that claim them as their own. As Southeast Asia correspondent, I’m fascinated by the power play unfolding in the South China Sea. It’s a part of the world fraught with risks of armed conflict that could ultimately pit America against China. I message the group, but I’m swiftly told they don’t accept foreigners for the summer tour. The boat is only a local vessel, they tell me, and I quote, not very comfortable. Instead, I’m offered the option of joining a fish and dive expedition on a luxury liveaboard dive boat for $3,000. There’ll be one dive each day on three different islands in the Spratlys. On board housekeeping, speedboat transfers during excursions, massages and one premium souvenir item per guest. My husband is suddenly keen to join. But then, 11 days before the trip, another email. The yacht is broken. There is, however, space on the not very comfortable local vessel. My husband’s enthusiasm evaporates in an instant. And that’s how I end up being picked up in the dead of night and driven in a minibus for hours to better. As a port in Palawan, the province in the Philippines closest to the South China Sea. I immediately spot a problem. They haven’t finished building the boat that is meant to be taking us to what the Filipinos call Pagasa, but is internationally known as P2. This is one of the biggest islands in the Spratlys. Workmen hammer away on the vessel while I loiter. Exhausted in the sweltering heat at the port. I’m traveling with around 40 local Filipino tourists and a handful of other journalists. We wait like this for hours. But if anybody can inject a dose of optimism into the bleakest of prospects, it is the tour’s organizer. Can who? Panda.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:05:16] It’s hard to imagine anyone more suited for this job than Ken. He’s the municipal tourism officer. He respectfully has a huge grin on his face and is always dressed ready for a beach holiday with his boardshorts and sunhat.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:05:16] It’s hard to imagine anyone more suited for this job than Ken. He’s the municipal tourism officer. He respectfully has a huge grin on his face and is always dressed ready for a beach holiday with his boardshorts and sunhat.

Speaker 3 [00:05:31] Be. Yes. No, no. Wait, wait. You remembered that? This is sad. This is not the worst. We’ve built over it and we survived.

Speaker 3 [00:05:31] Be. Yes. No, no. Wait, wait. You remembered that? This is sad. This is not the worst. We’ve built over it and we survived.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:05:43] That’s Ken’s need to assure us that we will survive. Isn’t particularly reassuring. And neither is the length of the crossing.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:05:43] That’s Ken’s need to assure us that we will survive. Isn’t particularly reassuring. And neither is the length of the crossing.

Ken Hupanda [00:05:51] Okay, so our estimated time travel from here to Sea Island is 26 hours. Okay.

Ken Hupanda [00:05:51] Okay, so our estimated time travel from here to Sea Island is 26 hours. Okay.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:05:57] 27 hours later. Ken finally calls us on board.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:05:57] 27 hours later. Ken finally calls us on board.

Ken Hupanda [00:06:02] Judy. And you say.

Ken Hupanda [00:06:02] Judy. And you say.

Speaker 4 [00:06:04] To your face.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:06:07] I gulped down my anti seasickness pill. Why? Poor thoughts of a luxury liveaboard from my mind and clamber onto the boats. I scanned the layout on the barely repurposed cargo ship. On the top story, only a single newly added wooden beam separates the endless ocean and our electric blue foldout beds. I strategically plonk myself down in the middle of the cat beds on the lower deck because, well, I don’t want to die. The tourists remain mostly upbeat about what they see as an adventure of a lifetime, and part of a new initiative from the Philippines government to increase awareness of China’s bullying in the South China Sea. But the chaos builds. This is all starting to feel decidedly detached from the Facebook posts that initially caught my attention. I’m exhausted and nauseous. We’re 20 hours in and I just want this to end. And it seems most of the hitherto excitable tourists have also been ground down.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:06:07] I gulped down my anti seasickness pill. Why? Poor thoughts of a luxury liveaboard from my mind and clamber onto the boats. I scanned the layout on the barely repurposed cargo ship. On the top story, only a single newly added wooden beam separates the endless ocean and our electric blue foldout beds. I strategically plonk myself down in the middle of the cat beds on the lower deck because, well, I don’t want to die. The tourists remain mostly upbeat about what they see as an adventure of a lifetime, and part of a new initiative from the Philippines government to increase awareness of China’s bullying in the South China Sea. But the chaos builds. This is all starting to feel decidedly detached from the Facebook posts that initially caught my attention. I’m exhausted and nauseous. We’re 20 hours in and I just want this to end. And it seems most of the hitherto excitable tourists have also been ground down.

Grace [00:07:15] Oh my God, it’s still worse. And then traveling a lot like I used to. I travel a lot to U.S. and it’s like like 20 hours. Like 22 hours. But it’s comfy, right? Sometimes I get a complimentary upgrade, right. And business class. But this is really the worst. I did not have breakfast. Lunch. You know, I don’t ever want to throw up. Yeah.

Grace [00:07:15] Oh my God, it’s still worse. And then traveling a lot like I used to. I travel a lot to U.S. and it’s like like 20 hours. Like 22 hours. But it’s comfy, right? Sometimes I get a complimentary upgrade, right. And business class. But this is really the worst. I did not have breakfast. Lunch. You know, I don’t ever want to throw up. Yeah.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:07:42] Grace is a bubbly city slicker, dressed as if she’s about to pop in to a yoga class. Unfortunately for both of us, there’s no chance of that or a complimentary upgrade to business class. But there is the promise of adventure. As we look out over the wide expanse of blue between us and the horizon. We suddenly spot two Chinese coastguard vessels trailing us. We’ve entered China’s notorious nine dash line that marks its claim to almost the entire South China Sea. China wants to be the dominant power in these waters. It hates that America and its allies have such a big presence in what China considers its own backyard. Plus, it wants to claim everything the sea has to offer. The fact that the nine dash line is deemed illegal under international law doesn’t stop China from patrolling with more and more assertiveness. Sometimes Chinese Coast Guard boats physically intimidate and drive back Filipino vessels in bases. Blasting them with water cannons is a common maneuver. When the boats trailing us fail to make a move, Grace is actually disappointed.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:07:42] Grace is a bubbly city slicker, dressed as if she’s about to pop in to a yoga class. Unfortunately for both of us, there’s no chance of that or a complimentary upgrade to business class. But there is the promise of adventure. As we look out over the wide expanse of blue between us and the horizon. We suddenly spot two Chinese coastguard vessels trailing us. We’ve entered China’s notorious nine dash line that marks its claim to almost the entire South China Sea. China wants to be the dominant power in these waters. It hates that America and its allies have such a big presence in what China considers its own backyard. Plus, it wants to claim everything the sea has to offer. The fact that the nine dash line is deemed illegal under international law doesn’t stop China from patrolling with more and more assertiveness. Sometimes Chinese Coast Guard boats physically intimidate and drive back Filipino vessels in bases. Blasting them with water cannons is a common maneuver. When the boats trailing us fail to make a move, Grace is actually disappointed.

Grace [00:08:59] I actually wanted to experience the water cannon. Cannon? Yeah. Seriously? Seriously.

Grace [00:08:59] I actually wanted to experience the water cannon. Cannon? Yeah. Seriously? Seriously.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:09:06] You ain’t scared of the water cannon?

Sue-Lin Wong [00:09:06] You ain’t scared of the water cannon?

Grace [00:09:09] I’m not sure, but of course I’ll find a way to get away from from it.

Grace [00:09:09] I’m not sure, but of course I’ll find a way to get away from from it.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:09:18] Around 14 hours behind schedule and having not been hit by a water cannon, we finally pull into Pagasa as a full moon lights up the sea. The relief of having survived the journey is palpable. Everyone smells like they need a shower and looks like they need a good night’s sleep. As we walk away from the port, I scan the moonlit village. It looks like so many I visited throughout Southeast Asia. Ramshackle rows of wooden or concrete shacks topped with corrugated iron. The biggest difference. Bright lights from at least ten Chinese Coast guard and militia vessels that dot the horizon. The whole island under a watchful eye. The main road running around the island was recently paved, but the closest thing to a car on Pagasa is a tricycle. So after a good night’s sleep, I jump on board with my translator Salamat. A local fisherman called Ronnie moonlights as our guide. On our Grand tour, we visit the island’s newly cemented runway, landing dock, port and school. They also have an evacuation center in case of typhoons, and the government plans to build a naval port and extend the island further into the sea to expand its airport. But the island is small on our not very speedy tricycle with Ronnie. It takes just 15 minutes to circumnavigate the perimeter road. There are no hotels on Pagasa, so I’m with a homestay host called Gerald. The digs are basic, but the bucket, shower, dirt floor and trail of ants around the bedroom are a step up from the cargo boat. After dinner, I sit down with Gerald and my translator to have a chat. It’s the Easter holiday, so all over the island. Little karaoke parties have sprung up, including right next door to Gerald’s house. Why did your parents move here?

Sue-Lin Wong [00:09:18] Around 14 hours behind schedule and having not been hit by a water cannon, we finally pull into Pagasa as a full moon lights up the sea. The relief of having survived the journey is palpable. Everyone smells like they need a shower and looks like they need a good night’s sleep. As we walk away from the port, I scan the moonlit village. It looks like so many I visited throughout Southeast Asia. Ramshackle rows of wooden or concrete shacks topped with corrugated iron. The biggest difference. Bright lights from at least ten Chinese Coast guard and militia vessels that dot the horizon. The whole island under a watchful eye. The main road running around the island was recently paved, but the closest thing to a car on Pagasa is a tricycle. So after a good night’s sleep, I jump on board with my translator Salamat. A local fisherman called Ronnie moonlights as our guide. On our Grand tour, we visit the island’s newly cemented runway, landing dock, port and school. They also have an evacuation center in case of typhoons, and the government plans to build a naval port and extend the island further into the sea to expand its airport. But the island is small on our not very speedy tricycle with Ronnie. It takes just 15 minutes to circumnavigate the perimeter road. There are no hotels on Pagasa, so I’m with a homestay host called Gerald. The digs are basic, but the bucket, shower, dirt floor and trail of ants around the bedroom are a step up from the cargo boat. After dinner, I sit down with Gerald and my translator to have a chat. It’s the Easter holiday, so all over the island. Little karaoke parties have sprung up, including right next door to Gerald’s house. Why did your parents move here?

Gerald [00:11:34] My father was a construction worker, too. He moved here for the work and then invited us to join them.

Gerald [00:11:34] My father was a construction worker, too. He moved here for the work and then invited us to join them.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:11:40] So, do you plan to spend the rest of your life here?

Sue-Lin Wong [00:11:40] So, do you plan to spend the rest of your life here?

Gerald [00:11:45] There’s no definite plan for how long we’re going to stay here. For now, we just want to save money.

Gerald [00:11:45] There’s no definite plan for how long we’re going to stay here. For now, we just want to save money.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:11:51] Is it easy to save money if you live on Pagasa?

Sue-Lin Wong [00:11:51] Is it easy to save money if you live on Pagasa?

Speaker 4 [00:11:54] Because he made them. Yes.

Speaker 4 [00:11:54] Because he made them. Yes.

Gerald [00:11:56] It’s easier. Definitely. Because we have subsidies. And the plot for our own home is provided by the government. So we don’t pay any rent.

Gerald [00:11:56] It’s easier. Definitely. Because we have subsidies. And the plot for our own home is provided by the government. So we don’t pay any rent.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:12:04] What about your wife? What does your wife do here?

Sue-Lin Wong [00:12:04] What about your wife? What does your wife do here?

Gerald [00:12:08] She’s an employee of the LGU as an assistant midwife.

Gerald [00:12:08] She’s an employee of the LGU as an assistant midwife.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:12:12] The LGU is a local government unit which runs life on the island. Over the past 20 years, the Philippine government has encouraged Filipinos to move to the island to help the country stake its claim over this contested area of the South China Sea. It gives people free rice and land to build their houses on. Many residents are given jobs by the LGU, including caring for the island’s livestock. Most, including Gerald Fish, for extra money. How often do you go out to fish?

Sue-Lin Wong [00:12:12] The LGU is a local government unit which runs life on the island. Over the past 20 years, the Philippine government has encouraged Filipinos to move to the island to help the country stake its claim over this contested area of the South China Sea. It gives people free rice and land to build their houses on. Many residents are given jobs by the LGU, including caring for the island’s livestock. Most, including Gerald Fish, for extra money. How often do you go out to fish?

Speaker 4 [00:12:46] Sending a boat?

Gerald [00:12:47] Three times a week. I go out from six in the evening, and then I come back at five in the morning. And I’ve normally got about 15 kilos of fish.

Gerald [00:12:47] Three times a week. I go out from six in the evening, and then I come back at five in the morning. And I’ve normally got about 15 kilos of fish.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:12:58] From 6 a.m. to 5 p.m..

Sue-Lin Wong [00:12:58] From 6 a.m. to 5 p.m..

Sue-Lin Wong [00:13:01] Gerald’s life is a simple one. And as I wander around Pagosa speaking to people, I figure his lot is reflective of most of the people living here fishing, tending to vegetable patches and livestock, drinking beer over a game of pool, and of course, their favorite pastime, karaoke.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:13:01] Gerald’s life is a simple one. And as I wander around Pagosa speaking to people, I figure his lot is reflective of most of the people living here fishing, tending to vegetable patches and livestock, drinking beer over a game of pool, and of course, their favorite pastime, karaoke.

Ken Hupanda [00:13:23] I think I. Na na na na.

Ken Hupanda [00:13:23] I think I. Na na na na.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:13:27] Yeah. You’ll be relieved to hear they didn’t manage to get me on the mike. Guys. But for all the chilled out backcountry vibes, the settling of Pagosa with residents since 2002 is about something much bigger. China views the South China Sea as strategically crucial to its own national security and its ambitions for regional supremacy. The seas around here also teeming with life, so both the Philippines and China are keen to rule the roost here. Fishing is one of the main ways the residents of Pagasa earn a living and support their families. Men like Larry Hugo, who head out on their small, rickety boats week in, week out, are on the front line of one of the region’s most tense geopolitical flashpoints.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:13:27] Yeah. You’ll be relieved to hear they didn’t manage to get me on the mike. Guys. But for all the chilled out backcountry vibes, the settling of Pagosa with residents since 2002 is about something much bigger. China views the South China Sea as strategically crucial to its own national security and its ambitions for regional supremacy. The seas around here also teeming with life, so both the Philippines and China are keen to rule the roost here. Fishing is one of the main ways the residents of Pagasa earn a living and support their families. Men like Larry Hugo, who head out on their small, rickety boats week in, week out, are on the front line of one of the region’s most tense geopolitical flashpoints.

Speaker 4 [00:14:17] Mama, port 30 is.

Gerald [00:14:20] Actually start my day doing fishing at 430 in the afternoon, and then stay out overnight until 730 in the morning. So I make sure that I’m in the island by eight in the morning. Usually I have a catch of around 20 kilos.

Gerald [00:14:20] Actually start my day doing fishing at 430 in the afternoon, and then stay out overnight until 730 in the morning. So I make sure that I’m in the island by eight in the morning. Usually I have a catch of around 20 kilos.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:14:35] Larry’s a fisherman and single dad who moved to Pagasa in 2009. I meet him at his house. There’s a faded picture of Charmander, the orange Pokemon with fire burning at the tip of his tail, pinned up next to pictures from Larry’s kids, a pink flower, the cross section of a human heart, and a sketch of a boy with a Band-Aid on his nose. There isn’t much else in his spot and home, except for fishing nets drying in the window and a couple of plastic chairs. The day I meet him, he’s patting around barefoot, dressed in yellow boardshorts, an old t shirt and a baseball cap. Larry heads out to sea by himself every day to support his two school aged daughters. It’s clear as I talk to him that he understands, perhaps more than anyone on the island, China’s tactics in the surrounding seas and how they are hardening.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:14:35] Larry’s a fisherman and single dad who moved to Pagasa in 2009. I meet him at his house. There’s a faded picture of Charmander, the orange Pokemon with fire burning at the tip of his tail, pinned up next to pictures from Larry’s kids, a pink flower, the cross section of a human heart, and a sketch of a boy with a Band-Aid on his nose. There isn’t much else in his spot and home, except for fishing nets drying in the window and a couple of plastic chairs. The day I meet him, he’s patting around barefoot, dressed in yellow boardshorts, an old t shirt and a baseball cap. Larry heads out to sea by himself every day to support his two school aged daughters. It’s clear as I talk to him that he understands, perhaps more than anyone on the island, China’s tactics in the surrounding seas and how they are hardening.

Speaker 4 [00:15:31] Marami po po maraming I am bawa and.

Speaker 4 [00:15:31] Marami po po maraming I am bawa and.

Gerald [00:15:35] Before I had ten reefs that I could fish out, but now they’re just two in the east area because the others are being blocked. So it’s gone from ten reefs down to just two. We are being blocked in the Subi Reef.

Gerald [00:15:35] Before I had ten reefs that I could fish out, but now they’re just two in the east area because the others are being blocked. So it’s gone from ten reefs down to just two. We are being blocked in the Subi Reef.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:15:48] Back when Larry had the pick of ten reefs to fish from, Subi Reef was just that a reef that was naturally submerged at high tide and only exposed during low tide. And being a reef, it was a prime fishing ground just 13 nautical miles to the west. But within four years of Larry moving to Pagasa, China started building artificial islands in the South China Sea. It now has seven and Subi Reef is one of the biggest, with a runway, radars, hangars, an underground storage facility and surface to air missile shelters. It is a fully militarized artificial island. This has caused a lot of tensions with other countries that claim parts or all of the South China Sea. Not just the Philippines, but also Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. Why? Well, in 2016, an international tribunal ruled that China’s activities broke international law. But China doesn’t really care about that judgment. It thinks its artificial islands bolster its claims and support its military capabilities. It is able to better project force in the region, because its planes and ships can now refuel in the middle of the sea, rather than having to return to mainland China hundreds of kilometers away. That makes it easier to counter America and pressure other countries to.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:15:48] Back when Larry had the pick of ten reefs to fish from, Subi Reef was just that a reef that was naturally submerged at high tide and only exposed during low tide. And being a reef, it was a prime fishing ground just 13 nautical miles to the west. But within four years of Larry moving to Pagasa, China started building artificial islands in the South China Sea. It now has seven and Subi Reef is one of the biggest, with a runway, radars, hangars, an underground storage facility and surface to air missile shelters. It is a fully militarized artificial island. This has caused a lot of tensions with other countries that claim parts or all of the South China Sea. Not just the Philippines, but also Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. Why? Well, in 2016, an international tribunal ruled that China’s activities broke international law. But China doesn’t really care about that judgment. It thinks its artificial islands bolster its claims and support its military capabilities. It is able to better project force in the region, because its planes and ships can now refuel in the middle of the sea, rather than having to return to mainland China hundreds of kilometers away. That makes it easier to counter America and pressure other countries to.

Gerald [00:17:21] Actually, 2011 to 2012. I could fish in those ten reefs. I’m actually the one who saw that the Chinese are developing artificial islands in that area, and I reported it to the Philippine Navy, but no one acknowledged my report.

Gerald [00:17:21] Actually, 2011 to 2012. I could fish in those ten reefs. I’m actually the one who saw that the Chinese are developing artificial islands in that area, and I reported it to the Philippine Navy, but no one acknowledged my report.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:17:34] Also, you were the first person who saw it.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:17:34] Also, you were the first person who saw it.

Speaker 4 [00:17:37] Happen that day.

Gerald [00:17:39] Yes. At first there were Chinese fishing alongside us, but I think they were just pretending to be fishermen because they ended up building their houses on the reef. And then the artificial island.

Gerald [00:17:39] Yes. At first there were Chinese fishing alongside us, but I think they were just pretending to be fishermen because they ended up building their houses on the reef. And then the artificial island.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:17:50] Have you seen this happen elsewhere or just in Subic Reef?

Sue-Lin Wong [00:17:50] Have you seen this happen elsewhere or just in Subic Reef?

Speaker 4 [00:17:54] So very quiet.

Gerald [00:17:55] And just in Subi Reef. First they build a hut, just native huts. Then eventually they turned it into concrete structures.

Gerald [00:17:55] And just in Subi Reef. First they build a hut, just native huts. Then eventually they turned it into concrete structures.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:18:05] What year?

Gerald [00:18:08] 13, 20, 12. 13. 14 and 15. It was over three years. Eventually their boats became bigger and they contained rocks and all other construction materials. And then by 2014, 2015, they started building the structures.

Gerald [00:18:08] 13, 20, 12. 13. 14 and 15. It was over three years. Eventually their boats became bigger and they contained rocks and all other construction materials. And then by 2014, 2015, they started building the structures.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:18:24] In the timing of this is important. The competing claims between China and the Philippines in these seas are nothing new. They stretch back decades. But when Larry Hugo spotted those first little huts being built on Subi Reef, he was witnessing a change in China’s strategy.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:18:24] In the timing of this is important. The competing claims between China and the Philippines in these seas are nothing new. They stretch back decades. But when Larry Hugo spotted those first little huts being built on Subi Reef, he was witnessing a change in China’s strategy.

Rommel Ong [00:18:43] In 2012, when XI Jinping ascended to power the Chinese Communist Party, that was when we see the dramatic shift in terms of the tempo and in terms of the increasing coercive actions or activities.

Rommel Ong [00:18:43] In 2012, when XI Jinping ascended to power the Chinese Communist Party, that was when we see the dramatic shift in terms of the tempo and in terms of the increasing coercive actions or activities.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:18:58] This is Rommel Ong, a retired rear admiral from the Philippines Navy. He’s now based at the Ateneo School of Government in Manila, where he researches China’s influence in the Philippines. I speak with him once I’m off the island to better understand the bigger picture of what I witnessed on Pagasa.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:18:58] This is Rommel Ong, a retired rear admiral from the Philippines Navy. He’s now based at the Ateneo School of Government in Manila, where he researches China’s influence in the Philippines. I speak with him once I’m off the island to better understand the bigger picture of what I witnessed on Pagasa.

Rommel Ong [00:19:16] So 2012 was the benchmark year, but you have to also consider that at the backdrop of that development is also the fact that we have seen the, rapid modernization of the People’s Liberation Army Navy over time. And of course, there’s the establishment of the Chinese Coast Guard. So we see, the regional what we call the regional balance of naval power has skewed to the advantage of Beijing. That condition created opportunities for gray zone type of operations.

Rommel Ong [00:19:16] So 2012 was the benchmark year, but you have to also consider that at the backdrop of that development is also the fact that we have seen the, rapid modernization of the People’s Liberation Army Navy over time. And of course, there’s the establishment of the Chinese Coast Guard. So we see, the regional what we call the regional balance of naval power has skewed to the advantage of Beijing. That condition created opportunities for gray zone type of operations.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:19:52] Gray zone tactics, coercion, and intimidation that fall short of conflict that could trigger a hot war. The best way to think about what China is doing is to picture the region as a salami. Yes. That’s right. Acquired sausage. Every time China builds a new artificial island, or installs another runway, or sends more Coast Guard ships to surround Pagasa, it is slicing away another piece of the salami for itself. It’s patiently enforcing strategic or territorial claims that fall short of a large scale international crisis. This makes it very difficult for other countries to push back without seriously escalating the situation. Some people who closely follow the situation told me they think China could one day blockade Pagasa. That would mean resupply boats carrying rice and other essentials won’t be able to reach the island. Having witnessed China’s salami slicing on CB reef, fisherman Larry Hugo found out firsthand what gray zone operations look like on the high seas. Can you describe what you reported to the Philippines Navy and how the Philippines Navy? What the Philippines Navy said to you?

Sue-Lin Wong [00:19:52] Gray zone tactics, coercion, and intimidation that fall short of conflict that could trigger a hot war. The best way to think about what China is doing is to picture the region as a salami. Yes. That’s right. Acquired sausage. Every time China builds a new artificial island, or installs another runway, or sends more Coast Guard ships to surround Pagasa, it is slicing away another piece of the salami for itself. It’s patiently enforcing strategic or territorial claims that fall short of a large scale international crisis. This makes it very difficult for other countries to push back without seriously escalating the situation. Some people who closely follow the situation told me they think China could one day blockade Pagasa. That would mean resupply boats carrying rice and other essentials won’t be able to reach the island. Having witnessed China’s salami slicing on CB reef, fisherman Larry Hugo found out firsthand what gray zone operations look like on the high seas. Can you describe what you reported to the Philippines Navy and how the Philippines Navy? What the Philippines Navy said to you?

Speaker 4 [00:21:13] Bug report go.

Gerald [00:21:14] And I started to report what I’d observed to the Philippine military. I actually had photos and videos of the progress of their construction in 2015. They told me they would do a written report and also warned me not to post or document anything online because it might affect our relationship with the Chinese government. However, in 2021, a Chinese Coast Guard boat bumped my fishing boat. At 630 in the morning, I went to sandbar one and then as I was approaching sandbar two, the Chinese Coast Guard blocked my way. I thought they were just going to pass by, but they actually blocked my boat. I’d heard they were using the water cannon on other fishermen’s boats, so I just retreated and went back to Pagasa Island.

Gerald [00:21:14] And I started to report what I’d observed to the Philippine military. I actually had photos and videos of the progress of their construction in 2015. They told me they would do a written report and also warned me not to post or document anything online because it might affect our relationship with the Chinese government. However, in 2021, a Chinese Coast Guard boat bumped my fishing boat. At 630 in the morning, I went to sandbar one and then as I was approaching sandbar two, the Chinese Coast Guard blocked my way. I thought they were just going to pass by, but they actually blocked my boat. I’d heard they were using the water cannon on other fishermen’s boats, so I just retreated and went back to Pagasa Island.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:21:56] Larry was so angry. He ignored the warnings from the Philippines military and posted everything online. His videos went viral. He received a lot of positive support from fellow Filipinos, but the government was less impressed.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:21:56] Larry was so angry. He ignored the warnings from the Philippines military and posted everything online. His videos went viral. He received a lot of positive support from fellow Filipinos, but the government was less impressed.

Speaker 4 [00:22:11] Don’t be naive.

Gerald [00:22:13] There were a lot of local media outlets who wanted to interview me, but the Army warned me not to do any interviews with them. They didn’t want me to say anything about that incident after I posted the videos online.

Gerald [00:22:13] There were a lot of local media outlets who wanted to interview me, but the Army warned me not to do any interviews with them. They didn’t want me to say anything about that incident after I posted the videos online.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:22:24] At that time, Rodrigo Duterte was the president of the Philippines. He went to great lengths to appease China in an effort to draw more investment into the country. Former Rear Admiral Rommel Ung told me that Did 30, even ordered the Philippines Navy to stop patrolling the country’s own waters. The current president, Ferdinand Bongbong Marcos, is much more pro-america, as was his father, the late President Ferdinand Marcos, the current mayor of the municipality, including Pagasa. Roberto del Mundo was posted with the army to the island during the rule of Marcos in the 1980s.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:22:24] At that time, Rodrigo Duterte was the president of the Philippines. He went to great lengths to appease China in an effort to draw more investment into the country. Former Rear Admiral Rommel Ung told me that Did 30, even ordered the Philippines Navy to stop patrolling the country’s own waters. The current president, Ferdinand Bongbong Marcos, is much more pro-america, as was his father, the late President Ferdinand Marcos, the current mayor of the municipality, including Pagasa. Roberto del Mundo was posted with the army to the island during the rule of Marcos in the 1980s.

Ken Hupanda [00:23:04] During that time, 1980s Garcia Island is known press structure, and during that time and the military only camp stayed there. Military personnel. No civilian that year. During that year, very lonely. Status of the military personnel. You see? Only personnel. Military, talking the same story every day. The same story. No. Harassment. We are friendly. The Philippine military and the Chinese military in the civilian fishermen were friendly.

Ken Hupanda [00:23:04] During that time, 1980s Garcia Island is known press structure, and during that time and the military only camp stayed there. Military personnel. No civilian that year. During that year, very lonely. Status of the military personnel. You see? Only personnel. Military, talking the same story every day. The same story. No. Harassment. We are friendly. The Philippine military and the Chinese military in the civilian fishermen were friendly.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:23:50] What was it like then? Were there lots of Chinese ships on the horizon?

Sue-Lin Wong [00:23:50] What was it like then? Were there lots of Chinese ships on the horizon?

Ken Hupanda [00:23:55] No. Chinese, vessel, militia during that year.

Ken Hupanda [00:23:55] No. Chinese, vessel, militia during that year.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:24:01] So? So at night, when you looked out, there were no lights the way there are now.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:24:01] So? So at night, when you looked out, there were no lights the way there are now.

Ken Hupanda [00:24:06] None. None.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:24:09] Can you describe how China’s tactics have changed over time?

Sue-Lin Wong [00:24:09] Can you describe how China’s tactics have changed over time?

Ken Hupanda [00:24:16] I think, the Chinese government, they’re harassing, the, Filipino fishermen. Yeah. Harassing us.

Ken Hupanda [00:24:16] I think, the Chinese government, they’re harassing, the, Filipino fishermen. Yeah. Harassing us.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:24:29] What do you think might happen to Pagasa as Chinese tactics intensify?

Sue-Lin Wong [00:24:29] What do you think might happen to Pagasa as Chinese tactics intensify?

Ken Hupanda [00:24:39] For my personal opinion. I think it will, come to learn maybe tomorrow or next year. So good morning and a half.

Ken Hupanda [00:24:39] For my personal opinion. I think it will, come to learn maybe tomorrow or next year. So good morning and a half.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:25:08] If war is on the horizon, it certainly doesn’t seem to be bothering our endlessly optimistic tour guide, Ken who?

Sue-Lin Wong [00:25:08] If war is on the horizon, it certainly doesn’t seem to be bothering our endlessly optimistic tour guide, Ken who?

Ken Hupanda [00:25:15] Panda plus, AP, CNN and Department of National Defense and Manila Gas.

Ken Hupanda [00:25:15] Panda plus, AP, CNN and Department of National Defense and Manila Gas.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:25:22] Ken is a veteran of the tourism industry and has been on the Pegasus gig since 2021. He tells me he’s visited the island around 25 times, and I like to think of him as Pegasus cheerleader in chief. He’s a man on a mission to build up a self-sustaining economy, starting with litter picking on the beach at some ungodly hour.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:25:22] Ken is a veteran of the tourism industry and has been on the Pegasus gig since 2021. He tells me he’s visited the island around 25 times, and I like to think of him as Pegasus cheerleader in chief. He’s a man on a mission to build up a self-sustaining economy, starting with litter picking on the beach at some ungodly hour.

Ken Hupanda [00:25:44] Or a very early at 5 a.m., we will have, coastal clean up activity. Personally, I’m a very positive person, so my first impression was that this place is full of potential. So when you speak about, nature based tourism, raw, unspoiled tourism where you can actually have a direct encounter with nature and, you are away from everything from all the worries of the world.

Ken Hupanda [00:25:44] Or a very early at 5 a.m., we will have, coastal clean up activity. Personally, I’m a very positive person, so my first impression was that this place is full of potential. So when you speak about, nature based tourism, raw, unspoiled tourism where you can actually have a direct encounter with nature and, you are away from everything from all the worries of the world.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:26:12] I’m all for a bit of positivity, but taking a 32 hour cargo trip ride to an island surrounded by Chinese Coast Guard and militia boats doesn’t instantly strike me as a place to escape the worries of the world.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:26:12] I’m all for a bit of positivity, but taking a 32 hour cargo trip ride to an island surrounded by Chinese Coast Guard and militia boats doesn’t instantly strike me as a place to escape the worries of the world.

Ken Hupanda [00:26:26] So I didn’t really visualize this place as a place that has, luxury hotels or or Michelin restaurants, but just raw nature where you can have a very close encounter with, with, with Mother Earth.

Ken Hupanda [00:26:26] So I didn’t really visualize this place as a place that has, luxury hotels or or Michelin restaurants, but just raw nature where you can have a very close encounter with, with, with Mother Earth.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:26:41] A close encounter with Mother Nature sounds tempting. So I decide to head out for a snorkeling adventure on the frontier with a local fisherman as our guide. We put her out into the nearby water. It’s an expanse of every shade of blue. And after cruising for about 20 minutes, we drop our anchor and dive in. Mother nature is in trouble. In the crystal clear seas. Just a couple of hundred meters from Pagasa. The coral is dead. Climate change and Vietnamese cyanide fishing in the past are partly to blame. But the real destruction started in 2013, when China let its fishermen loose on the corals to dig up valuable giant clams. It then dredged up coral and sand from around this dive site in order to lay the foundations for its artificial island turned military base at Subi Reef. That’s the one where Larry Hugo used to drop anchor. The more I explore, the more Pagasa seems less like a rustic Paradise of white sand beaches and crystal clear waters than a beleaguered outpost dwarfed and increasingly enclosed by China’s enormous buildup of artificial islands and its aggressive, often menacing Coast Guard. You might think that skirmishes with the Chinese navy, or sleeping under the constant watch of its coast guard might put tourists off visiting. But Ken says it’s the opposite.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:26:41] A close encounter with Mother Nature sounds tempting. So I decide to head out for a snorkeling adventure on the frontier with a local fisherman as our guide. We put her out into the nearby water. It’s an expanse of every shade of blue. And after cruising for about 20 minutes, we drop our anchor and dive in. Mother nature is in trouble. In the crystal clear seas. Just a couple of hundred meters from Pagasa. The coral is dead. Climate change and Vietnamese cyanide fishing in the past are partly to blame. But the real destruction started in 2013, when China let its fishermen loose on the corals to dig up valuable giant clams. It then dredged up coral and sand from around this dive site in order to lay the foundations for its artificial island turned military base at Subi Reef. That’s the one where Larry Hugo used to drop anchor. The more I explore, the more Pagasa seems less like a rustic Paradise of white sand beaches and crystal clear waters than a beleaguered outpost dwarfed and increasingly enclosed by China’s enormous buildup of artificial islands and its aggressive, often menacing Coast Guard. You might think that skirmishes with the Chinese navy, or sleeping under the constant watch of its coast guard might put tourists off visiting. But Ken says it’s the opposite.

Ken Hupanda [00:28:18] That that’s why I’m banking on that right now. I am maximizing so every time there is news, there is new news about the conflict, about I am somehow, you know, to be honest, I am somewhat happy about what’s going on. If it intensifies, that means that I am. My marketing also intensifies. It gives me a little bit of a worry in the future that this place may become too peaceful to, you know, normal. That I’d have to compete with other places in the Philippines because we’re just like them, you know? No Chinese, no no aggressors or anything around.

Ken Hupanda [00:28:18] That that’s why I’m banking on that right now. I am maximizing so every time there is news, there is new news about the conflict, about I am somehow, you know, to be honest, I am somewhat happy about what’s going on. If it intensifies, that means that I am. My marketing also intensifies. It gives me a little bit of a worry in the future that this place may become too peaceful to, you know, normal. That I’d have to compete with other places in the Philippines because we’re just like them, you know? No Chinese, no no aggressors or anything around.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:28:55] What would you say is the typical profile of a tourist who comes on your tour?

Sue-Lin Wong [00:28:55] What would you say is the typical profile of a tourist who comes on your tour?

Ken Hupanda [00:29:00] The idea is that should be a Filipino, young Filipino, young Filipino who could also be an advocate who’s not just only traveling for leisure, you know.

Ken Hupanda [00:29:00] The idea is that should be a Filipino, young Filipino, young Filipino who could also be an advocate who’s not just only traveling for leisure, you know.

Grace [00:29:14] Going to those remote places, reaching out to those people that are like really indigent, those that are not really often visited by tourists or a lot of people. So, yeah, it’s like community service or like being a patron, like, yeah, a true Filipino. Yeah.

Grace [00:29:14] Going to those remote places, reaching out to those people that are like really indigent, those that are not really often visited by tourists or a lot of people. So, yeah, it’s like community service or like being a patron, like, yeah, a true Filipino. Yeah.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:29:36] Grace Puyat is the infectiously bubbly tourist who was disappointed we didn’t get blasted by a water cannon from the Chinese coast Guard, and she is one of who ponders ideal tourists young, enthusiastic and patriotic. She grew up hearing stories about Pagasa.

Sue-Lin Wong [00:29:36] Grace Puyat is the infectiously bubbly tourist who was disappointed we didn’t get blasted by a water cannon from the Chinese coast Guard, and she is one of who ponders ideal tourists young, enthusiastic and patriotic. She grew up hearing stories about Pagasa.

A rock in a hard place

A story from the South China seas

Transcript

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