The perils of a Le Pen presidency

For over half a century the name Le Pen has sent a tremor through liberal France. Le Pen senior, Jean-Marie, prowled for decades around the political fringes, trading in xenophobic outrage and antisemitic provocation. He was as adept at stirring fear and offending the establishment as he was at securing convictions for incitement to racial hatred. Twice Mr Le Pen sat in parliament, and in 2002 he made it into the presidential run-off. Even then nobody took seriously the possibility that the blustering former paratrooper would win the highest office—or wish to.

The same cannot be said for his daughter, Marine. Since taking over the National Front in 2011, rebranding it the National Rally (RN), she has converted a pariah into a party preparing to govern. Her protégé, the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella—now party president—is the only politician to feature in the top 50 favourite French personalities, alongside football stars and ageing rock legends. Over 60% of the French now see the RN as a political party like any other. Nearly two-thirds of voters think it can win office, up from 40% in 2018. A plurality of the French no longer fear that it is a “danger for democracy”.