Rogue Russia threatens the world, not just Ukraine

Like the tsar he models himself on, Vladimir Putin is about to be anointed as Russia’s ruler for another six years. The election he will win on March 17th will be a sham. But it should nonetheless be a wake-up call for the West. Far from collapsing, Russia’s regime has proved resilient. And Mr Putin’s ambitions pose a long-term threat that goes far beyond Ukraine. He could spread more discord in Africa and the Middle East, cripple the un and put nuclear weapons in space. The West needs a long-term strategy for a rogue Russia that goes much further than helping Ukraine. Right now it doesn’t have one. It also needs to show that its enemy is Mr Putin, not 143m Russian people.

Many in the West hoped that Western sanctions and Mr Putin’s blunders in Ukraine, including the senseless sacrifice of legions of young Russians, might doom his regime. Yet it survived. As our study this week of life in Vladivostok shows, its resilience has several foundations. Russia’s economy has been re-engineered. Oil exports bypass sanctions and are shipped to the global south. Western brands from bmw to h&m have been replaced with Chinese and local substitutes. In textbooks and the media a seductive narrative of nationalism and Russian victimhood is promulgated. Dissent at home has been strangled. Mr Putin’s most charismatic political rival, Alexei Navalny, was murdered in the gulag in February. So far the Kremlin has had no difficulty controlling the brave crowds mourning him.