How we did with last year’s predictions

By Tom Standage

ECONOMISTS, AS THE old joke goes, have successfully predicted nine of the last five recessions. The main thing we got wrong in The World Ahead 2023 was being too gloomy about Western economies, predicting a brief recession in America, a deep one in the EU and a long one in Britain during 2023. But a mild winter in Europe (which softened the economic blow of high energy prices) and the strength of the labour market in America meant we were wrong. Recessions could still happen in 2024, of course, but that is the point of the joke: any prediction of a recession will come true eventually. Timing matters.

China’s abrupt dropping of its zero-covid rules in December 2022 also caught us out. We had expected some loosening during 2023, but not a total reversal of the policy (though we did suggest it as a wild-card “What If?” item). Nor did we predict October’s surprise attack on Israel by Hamas.