The World Ahead | The World Ahead 2023
The American economy is set for a downturn, not a crisis
The coming recession looks likely to be mild
By Simon Rabinovitch: US economics editor, The Economist, Washington, DC
START WITH the bad news: America is heading for a recession in 2023. Over the past half-century, whenever inflation has reached an annual pace of more than 5%, it has always taken a recession to wring it out of the economy (see chart). The current episode of inflation will be no different. Only when growth truly goes negative will America be able to contain its rampant price pressures.
This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2023 under the headline “Rainy, with sunny breaks”
