With crises in Ukraine and Israel, can America still defend Taiwan?

By Anton La Guardia

WHEN JOE BIDEN entered the White House his priority was to establish “a stable, predictable relationship” with Russia and end America’s “forever wars” in the greater Middle East, to concentrate on the economy at home and rivalry with China abroad. It did not work out that way. Russia invaded Ukraine; Hamas attacked Israel. As America helps its friends under assault, can it still defend Taiwan?

Strategists worry about a “window of vulnerability” in the Indo-Pacific this decade, as China’s forces grow stronger and America’s investments in new military equipment don’t fully bear fruit until the 2030s. Concerns about this gap will deepen with the approach of 2027, the year when Xi Jinping, China’s leader, wants the People’s Liberation Army to be able to invade Taiwan if ordered to do so. But whether a war breaks out does not just depend on the military balance. Much will be determined by politics. And with both America and Taiwan holding elections in 2024, the danger period may start soon.