Mapping the Ukraine war: where is the latest fighting?

Updated on NaNth 0NaN

0.0% of Ukraine is controlled by Russia

0.0% before the invasion

0.0% since Feb 24th 2022

In the past 30 days

0 km²

gained by Ukraine

war-related fires

Where in Ukraine is the war taking place? Intelligence sources, both traditional and open-source, can give a sense of what goes on in cities such as Kyiv, and near the front line on the Ukrainian side. But it is harder to know what happens at the front, or deep in Russian-occupied areas. To track the fighting, we have developed a system based on data from satellites that fly over the country twice a day. Use the tools below to see where territory is contested, which side is pushing for advantage, and the precise locations—down to a neighbourhood level—bearing the brunt of the war.

Cloud cover, % of time

None

All

Other

War-related*

Russian-occupied

Ukraine

Kyiv

Kharkiv

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

Bakhmut

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

MOLDOVA

Kherson

Sea of Azov

Black Sea

Number of fires

Crimea

Cloud cover, % of time

War-related*

Other

None

All

Russian-occupied

Kyiv

Kharkiv

UKRAINE

Bakhmut

Zaporizhia

Donetsk

Kherson

Sea of Azov

RUSSIA

Crimea

Number

of fires

Black Sea

Cloud cover, % of time

None

All

Other

War-related*

Russian-occupied

Ukraine

Kyiv

Kharkiv

UKRAINE

Bakhmut

Zaporizhia

Donetsk

RUSSIA

Kherson

Sea of Azov

Black Sea

Number of fires

Crimea

Cloud cover, % of time

None

All

Other

War-related*

Russian-occupied

Ukraine

Kyiv

Kharkiv

UKRAINE

Bakhmut

Zaporizhia

Donetsk

RUSSIA

Kherson

Sea of Azov

Black Sea

Number of fires

Crimea

*Assessed by statistical model

Our tracking system is based on data from FIRMS, a publicly available system set up by NASA originally designed to detect forest fires. Like any view of the war, it is imperfect and incomplete. But unlike other methods, it offers a consistent and neutral guide to probable military activity anywhere in the country, so long as skies are clear. We have built a machine-learning algorithm that evaluates the location of each fire, and assesses whether or not it is related to the war. It consists of 100 separate models built to predict fire activity in non-war years. If at least 95 of these models agree that the number of fires identified at a given place and time is abnormally high by pre-war standards, the algorithm marks these “extra” fires as war-related. So far, the model has mapped over 60,000 war-related fires. Many are probably artillery fire, but others result from attacks such as missile and drone strikes.

Which side controls the territory where these strikes take place? To assess this, and the share of Ukraine occupied by Russia, we rely on daily open-source intelligence assessments of territorial control from the Institute for the Study of War, a think-tank. Our charts below show how war-fire activity—and control of the country—has evolved.

War-related fires, by area of control

Seven-day moving average, days with less than 50% cloud cover

Ukrainian territory controlled by Russia, %

*No day with less than 50% cloud cover in surrounding week

These country-wide trends conceal a war that is fought village by village, street by street. The conflict has been defined not by big gains in territory, but often grinding battles: for Kyiv, Kherson, Bakhmut, Robotyne and Avdiivkva. In our explorable map below, as well as probable military activity, we highlight urban areas, logistical infrastructure, and, on the Russian side, known fortifications.

Number of fires

War-related

Other

Occupied area

Fortifications

Our method to track the fighting has limitations. The location of the fires detected is imprecise, and could be off by as much as 1km, depending on the satellite. Some of the fires it marks as war-related are probably not. Given its strict thresholds, the number that are not flagged as war-related but should be is probably even larger. Moreover, many fires never get detected at all, either because they end before the satellites pass overhead or because the satellites’ view is blocked by clouds. (Much as fire is a constant of war, so is its fog.) Our picture is a guide to activity, and far from a full tally of the devastation.

Nonetheless, this system offers unique insights. It detects activity anywhere in the country, and—weather permitting—provides live counts of fire events day by day. As the war continues, our maps will continue to update. ■

Inspect all our code, data, and models on GitHub.

Sources: DMSP Nighttime Lights; ESA; EUMETSAT; Google Earth Engine; Institute for the Study of War; NASA; WorldPop; OpenStreetMap; Bing Maps; Brady Africk; The Economist

Mapping the Ukraine war: where is the latest fighting?

Our satellite view of the conflict, updated daily

0.0% of Ukraine is controlled by Russia

In the past 30 days

War-related fires, by area of control

Seven-day moving average, days with less than 50% cloud cover

Ukrainian territory controlled by Russia, %

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