Two by-election defeats spell deep trouble for the Tories

In theory, British by-elections do not justify the attention they receive. Few people vote in the special elections, which are held between general elections to fill a vacant seat in a constituency. By-elections are not always reliable guides to the overall mood of the country. Besides, the Conservative government still has a respectable majority in the House of Commons. When it comes to passing bills, it doesn’t matter greatly if Labour gains a couple of new MPs.

The reason by-elections matter is that they matter to politicians. Despite their vaunted precision, opinion polls can seem not quite real–just numbers in a table. Watching an actual seat change allegiance is a vivid sign of what might happen on an MP’s own turf at the next general election. So the fact that the Labour Party comfortably won two by-elections on February 15th, in seats previously occupied by Conservative MPs, will cause despair in the governing party.