The war in Ukraine may be heading for stalemate

By Shashank Joshi

“WE DO not assess that the conflict is a stalemate,” insisted Jake Sullivan, America’s national security adviser, in late August 2023. Ukraine, he said, was taking territory “on a methodical, systematic basis”. Alas, the evidence now suggests that Ukraine’s counter-offensive has stopped well short of its stated minimum goal, and that the war may indeed have entered a period of military stalemate. The coming year will be a difficult, dangerous period for Ukraine.

Its counter-offensive, which began in June, made modest progress on the flanks of Bakhmut, an eastern town that Russia had captured in May, and in the south, in Zaporizhia province. A combination of weary units, limited ammunition and wet weather will slow offensives during the winter, though some small-unit infantry attacks will continue.