The pandemic has broken a closely followed survey of sentiment

Americans are gloomy about the state of the economy. Since the covid-19 pandemic began, consumer sentiment has been in the doldrums, hitting its lowest level ever in June 2022. Such negativity has prompted claims that the country is suffering a “vibecession”—although the market appears healthy, good vibes are lacking.

Changes in consumer sentiment are normally a useful economic benchmark. The longest-running measure comes from a survey by the University of Michigan, which began in 1946. Each month it asks a representative sample of 600 Americans a set of five questions probing their opinions on their own finances and spending, the state of the wider economy, and the outlook for both. For most of the past four decades the index has moved in lock-step with changes in current consumer spending, and also loosely predicted spending a year ahead.