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The World Ahead | Middle East in 2024

The aftermath of the war with Israel will shape Palestinian life

Many eyes will be on the Palestinian Authority

A Palestinian wears a Palestinian flag while protesting Israeli occupation in the West Bank.
Image: Getty Images

By Gregg Carlstrom

For more than a decade, life in the Palestinian territories was painfully static. The occupied West Bank was ruled by the corrupt nationalists of Fatah, and blockaded Gaza was run by the corrupt Islamists of Hamas. Residents of the West Bank endured the daily abuses of occupation. Those in Gaza suffered occasional short wars, and longer periods where life was calm but miserable. There was no progress towards a two-state solution—nor any reconciliation between the two estranged Palestinian factions.

Everything changed in 2023. Even before October 7th, it was the deadliest year on record for Palestinians in the West Bank. Then, on a quiet autumn morning, Hamas militants crossed the border into Israel and massacred more than 1,400 people, most of them civilians. Israel declared war immediately. Thousands of air strikes and, later, a ground invasion have laid waste to Gaza and killed more Palestinians than any war since 1948.

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This article appeared in the Middle East and Africa section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2024 under the headline “What next?”

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