Rich-world labour markets will remain strong in 2024

By Callum Williams

AFTER THE lifting of lockdowns in 2021, rich-world labour markets roared back to life faster than anyone had expected. In 2022 and 2023 they continued to strengthen, breaking records in the process. The economic outlook for 2024 is uncertain: will the post-pandemic expansion come to an end? Even if the world falls into recession, though, expect labour markets to remain strong. Finding a job will rarely have been so easy.

The unemployment rate across the rich world, at less than 5%, is at historical lows. For a broader measure of labour-market health, consider the share of people aged 16-64 who are actually in a job. This “working-age employment rate” is at an all-time high in around half of OECD countries. Even in countries synonymous with high unemployment, such as Italy and Portugal, employment rates are smashing records. Labour markets, to a greater extent than at almost any time in recent economic history, are delivering for workers, especially those on low incomes and with poor skills.