Niall Ferguson and Condoleezza Rice on the new cold war
Military strength and allies matter, but nothing is inevitable. Five lessons from the cold war stand out
By Niall Ferguson and Condoleezza Rice
The intensifying rivalry between America and China has led to much talk of a new cold war. Some say that is going too far, but the two do seem now to have little space for co-operation and rather more for conflict.
The greatest difference with the first cold war is, of course, the origin of this rivalry. After the second world war, the two superpowers settled quickly into confrontation. They had little in common. The Soviet Union was a military giant but an economic recluse. China, conversely, was brought into the international economy after 1978. For 30 years it benefited from integration and access to foreign capital and know-how. Along the way, it acquired an aptitude for indigenous innovation, not just intellectual-property theft.
This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2024 under the headline “Five cold-war lessons”
