How will recent primary reforms change the Democratic race?

By A.R. | CHICAGO

CAUCUS-GOERS in Iowa begin the process of picking the Democratic nominee for president on February 3rd. Candidates then compete in primaries or caucuses in every state (plus territories), gathering delegates who will choose the nominee at the party’s national convention in Milwaukee, where the marathon ends, in July. Any contest holds uncertainties. But this one could be complicated by three recent rule changes prompted by lingering acrimony over the 2016 Democratic race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Could the reforms cause an upset?

The first is an effort by party chiefs to replace caucuses with primaries. Four years ago, 14 states held caucuses; only three will do so this year (not counting Hawaii and North Dakota, which call their elections caucuses, but are really also primaries). This matters. Caucuses are time-consuming, messy and public, where the best organised and most passionate supporters gain an upper hand. Participating in the Iowa caucuses, for example, can mean spending hours, usually in a school gym or a community hall, standing in a huddle of supporters who like a particular candidate. A sometimes chaotic process of counting bodies takes place. Neighbours get to see who is supporting whom. If candidates don’t win at least 15% support in a given caucus, they lose out on picking up any delegates, and their supporters are pressed to line up with those of a more popular contender.