Globalisation, already slowing, is suffering a new assault

Trade ministers are not known for histrionics. Yet South Korea’s, Ahn Duk-geun, is alarmed. The world is on the verge of opening Pandora’s box, he warned last month. If the European Union follows through on threats to mimic America’s protectionist industrial policies, “Japan, Korea, China, every country will engage in this very difficult race to ignore global trading rules.” The international system of trade and investment, painstakingly negotiated over decades, will be upended.

William Reinsch, who used to oversee America’s export controls as an undersecretary of commerce, is just as blunt. America has always wanted to maintain a technological edge over other economic powers, he says. These days, however, it is pursuing that goal in a new way: “We have moved from a ‘run faster’ to a ‘run faster and trip the other guy’ policy.” The great powers are coming to see economic advances, at least in the broad swathe of industry they define as strategic, in zero-sum terms. The implications for global prosperity are bleak.