Global average temperatures may pass a threshold in 2024

By Catherine Brahic

When will the annual global average temperature rise by more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time? There have been individual days when the global average temperature has exceeded that threshold, but so far no single year has, on average, been that hot overall. This may change in 2024, when the steady, century-long rise in temperatures driven by greenhouse-gas emissions syncs with a natural cyclical warming pattern for the first time in nearly a decade.