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Do Russia’s military setbacks increase the risk of nuclear conflict?

Tactical nuclear weapons are smaller, but using them would carry huge risks

FILE - This undated file photo provided Tuesday, Sept. 19, 2017, by Russian Defense Ministry official web site shows a Russian Iskander-K missile launched during a military exercise at a training ground at the Luzhsky Range, near St. Petersburg, Russia. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the largest conflict that Europe has seen since World War II, with Russia conducting a multi-pronged offensive across the country. The Russian military has pummeled wide areas in Ukraine with air strikes and has conducted massive rocket and artillery bombardment resulting in massive casualties. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

THE SPECTACULAR collapse of Vladimir Putin’s army in Kharkiv province has revived concerns that Russia might resort to nuclear weapons. “I fear that they will strike back now in really unpredictable ways,” warned Rose Gottemoeller, a former deputy secretary-general of NATO, “and ways that may even involve weapons of mass destruction.” Ms Gottemoeller, speaking to the BBC, said she was not worried about Russia’s massive intercontinental ballistic missiles, which cross oceans and can destroy cities, but its so-called tactical nuclear weapons. What are these, and might Mr Putin use them if he is losing the war?

Tactical nuclear weapons (experts prefer the term “non-strategic”) are those with relatively small yields. They can weigh in at a few kilotons, or less. The yield of a B61-12, an American weapon with a variable yield, can be “dialled down” as low as 0.3 kilotons if it is to be used as a tactical weapon—around one-fiftieth of the yield of the bomb which destroyed Hiroshima. The explosion of a few thousand tonnes of badly stored ammonium nitrate in Beirut in August 2020 showed how terrible such blasts can be. But they are far less devastating than those of the weapons used in an all-out nuclear exchange.

This article appeared in the The Economist explains section of the print edition under the headline “Do Russia’s military setbacks increase the risk of nuclear conflict?”

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