A new balance of power will emerge in the Middle East

By Gregg Carlstrom

At its start, 2023 was supposed to be a year of regional de-escalation in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia agreed to a detente with Iran in March; it was also talking with America about a three-way deal that would have seen it normalise ties with Israel. Civil wars in Libya, Syria and Yemen had ground to a stalemate. Prosperous and stable, the Gulf states were the new centre of power in a region exhausted by conflict—and they wanted everyone to settle down and focus on economic growth.

So much for that idea. A month after the Saudi-Iranian deal, Sudan tipped into a gruesome civil war. Then came the terrible massacre in Israel on October 7th, perpetrated by Hamas, and a long and ongoing Israeli war in Gaza. After a long period of relative quiet, the Middle East’s oldest conflict roared back to life and brought the entire region to the brink of broader violence.